In the upcoming Israeli elections on March 17, no one party is expected to win a majority of seats in the 120-seat Knesset; hence, as usual, the party that wins is not the party that leads in the vote but the party that can put together a coalition with a majority of seats, or 61. The two leading parties, Likud (led by Benjamin Netanyahu) and the Zionist Union (led jointly by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni) are neck and neck in the polls, each hovering around 24 seats.. But the question is: Which of them can form the winning coalition?

Below are projections of three possible coalition outcomes. The first scenario imagines a Netanyahu-led coalition that relies on the support of rightist parties. The second explores two possible coalitions led by the Zionist Union, one aligning with other anti-Netanyahu (though not necessarily leftist) parties and one aligning with the Arab list. The third depicts a unity government wherein Likud and the Zionist Union enter into coalition with one another. Though this coalition could hypothetically be led by either party, it is more likely to occur if Herzog is asked to form a government. The core parties likely to make up each coalition are highlighted in a darker blue. The projections are based on a 2/18 Knesset Channel Poll.

Scenario A: Rightist Government

COALITION	SEATS	OPPOSITION	SEATS
Likud	24	Zionist Union	25
Habayit Hayehudi	11	Yesh Atid	11
Ha’am Itanu	5	Joint Arab List	12
Shas	6	Meretz	5
United Torah Judaism	7	TOTAL	53
Kulanu	7
Yisrael Beiteinu	7
TOTAL	67

With a rightist government, Netanyahu should be able to get a core group of about 53 seats (highlighted in darker blue). As the numbers now stand, the Netanyahu-led coalition would fall just short of the 61 seats it needs should either Moshe Kahlon (Kulanu) or Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) refuse to join a Netanyahu-led coalition, as each has threatened.

Scenario B: Anti-Bibi Government

COALITION	SEATS	OPPOSITION	SEATS
Zionist Union	25	Likud	24
Yesh Atid	11	Habayit Hayehudi	11
Meretz	5	Shas	6
Kulanu	7	Ha’am Itanu	5
United Torah Judaism	7	Joint Arab List	12
Yisrael Beiteinu	7	TOTAL	58
TOTAL	62

The leftist parties could be joined by the Ultra-Orthodox party UTJ, or possibly by Shas. Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, is a wildcard since Lieberman has claimed both that he does not want Netanyahu back in office and that he won’t join a Zionist Union-led government.

OR

COALITION	SEATS	OPPOSITION	SEATS
Zionist Union	25	Likud	24
Yesh Atid	11	Habayit Hayehudi	11
Meretz	5	Shas	6
Kulanu	7	Ha’am Itanu	5
Joint Arab List	12	Yisrael Beiteinu	7
TOTAL	60	United Torah Judaism	7
		TOTAL	60

The Arab List is unlikely to join a coalition of Zionist parties but. However, this is a possibility and the 2/19 Channel 10 poll shows this coalition winning 62 seats.

Situation C: Unity Government

COALITION	SEATS	OPPOSITION	SEATS
Zionist Union	25	Habayit Hayehudi	11
Likud	24	Shas	6
Yesh Atid	11	Ha’am Itanu	5
Kulanu	7	Yisrael Beiteinu	7
TOTAL	67	United Torah Judaism	7
		Joint Arab List	12
		Meretz	5
		TOTAL	53

Herzog predicted that Likud would replace Netanyahu as chairman to form a unity government with the Zionist Union if Herzog forms a coalition.

Tamar Friedman is an intern at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. She is a senior at the University of Pennsylvania studying Political Science and the Modern Middle East.