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E-Notes · April 2014

The Afghan Presidential Election: a Prediction and a Warning

Andrew Garfield
Andrew GarfieldAndrew Garfield recently led a joint Afghan-American team that was commissioned by the U.S. Department of State to hold three pre-presidential election polls in Afghanistan between November 2013 and March 2014.  The results of his work make for interesting reading and he has predicted the likely outcome of the first round of the election. Having... Read more...
E-Notes · April 2014

A Saudi Psychologist on Jihadism, Clerical Elites, and Education Reform

Joseph Braude
Joseph BraudeClinical psychologist Abdullah al-Garni serves a niche clientele: recovering jihadists. He heads the mental health division at the Mohammed bin Naif Center for Counseling and Advice, a halfway house for members of Al-Qaeda and other groups who have served prison time in Saudi Arabia or at the US Government-run Guantanamo Bay detention facility. The... Read more...
BackChannel · April 2014

Presenting the Spring 2014 Issue of Orbis

OrbisRecent actions by China, including its declaration of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) that includes areas in dispute with Japan, have generated a great deal of concern by China’s neighbors. Arthur Waldron argues that the reaction of East... This preview of Orbis, as presented in the Editor’s Corner, is followed by the Editor’s reflections on “The Revenge of Force... Read more...
E-Notes · April 2014

Kárpátalja: Europe’s Next Crimea?

John R. Haines
John HainesCrimea’s secession and subsequent annexation begs many questions. An overlooked but important one is: Will the next “Crimea” occur inside NATO and the European Union? If so, an interesting candidate is Kárpátalja, a region in which some 162,000 ethnic Hungarians live along Ukraine's western frontier with Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary... Read more...

Featured Items

FPRI Radio · April 2014

Dr. Henri J. Barkey on Turkey’s Ban of Social Media

Dr. Henri BarkeyIn this edition of FPRI Radio, FPRI's Tally Helfont interviews Dr. Henri J. Barkey on Turkey’s ban of social media and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s increasingly erratic policies.  Henri... Read more...
E-Notes · April 2014

Ukraine and Three Forgotten Realities: What Would Robert Strausz-Hupé Say?

Jakub Grygiel
Jakub GrygielRussia’s invasion of Ukraine is an unwelcome reminder of time-tested realities that we have been tempted to forget over the past two decades. These realities, namely that history is written by men, that force must be met with force, and that wars are rarely local affairs, appear throughout history and are undoubtedly unpleasant because they do not... Read more...
E-Notes · March 2014

Egypt: Resurgence of the Security State

Ann M. Lesch
Ann LeschVast numbers of Egyptians took to the streets on June 30, determined to restore the goals of the January 25 revolution, undermined during the year of rule by Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi. Protesters expressed overwhelming enthusiasm for the military, which sided with them as it had against Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. At the time, I... Read more...
The Philadelphia Papers, E-Books · April 2014

The Perfect Storm Ahead? An Exploration of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism

John R. Haines
Philadelphia Papers No. 5 CoverThe international community has for some time been alarmed by the prospect of a terror or criminal organization acquiring possession of fissile material with the intent to weaponize it in a nuclear explosive device. A potential malefactor has two options for the acquisition of fissile material: first, to steal or divert the material from a state; or second, to... Read more...
E-Notes · March 2014

Draining the Swamp in Iraq

Frank R. Gunter
Frank GunterThe recent explosion of violence in Iraq has several interrelated causes. In part, it is a spillover from the Syrian civil war and a reaction to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s heavy-handed pro-Shi’a policies. These events have reopened the wounds of the terrible sectarian violence of 2006 and 2007. But the Syrian war may be coming to an end... Read more...
E-Notes · March 2014

Ukraine: And the Winner Is . . . China

Artyom Lukin
Artyom LukinThere is one international player that stands to gain from the recent turn of events in Ukraine, regardless of its outcome. This player apparently has nothing to do with the crisis, which has engulfed Russia, the EU and the United States, and makes a point of staying on the sidelines. The country in question, of course, is China. The leadership in Beijing... Read more...
E-Notes · March 2014

Russia, Crimea, and Kosovo: Right Place, Wrong Example

John R. Haines
John HainesThere are two ways to respond to a referendum: decide to honor its results, or decide not to. Russia points to Kosovo in defense of its actions vis-à-vis Sunday’s referendum in Crimea. It could be suggested Russia is looking to the right geography but the wrong example. More useful might be the example of Serbia and the 2012 North Kosovo referendum. The... Read more...
E-Notes · March 2014

China’s Economic Reforms and the Communist Party's New Left

Felix K. Chang
China's Debt on the RiseAt China’s National People’s Congress in early March 2014, the Chinese government rolled out a new set of economic reform measures—the basis of which were drawn up at the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum four months earlier. The reform measures are part of Beijing’s broader plan to transform China’s economy from one dependent on investment to a more... Read more...
E-Notes · March 2014

China and Ukraine: Principled Policy or Power Politics?

June Teufel Dreyer
China Ukraine RussiaRussian president Vladimir Putin’s actions with regard to the unrest in Ukraine put the Chinese leadership in an exceedingly delicate position. A cornerstone of the country’s foreign policy since 1954 has been its adherence to the Pancha Shila, or Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, with their insistence on non-aggression and non-interference in the sovereign... Read more...