E-Notes

The July 4, 2010 Mexican Gubernatorial Elections

By George W. Grayson

July 2010

George W. Grayson is the Class of 1938 Professor of Government at the College of William & Mary, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as well as an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. His latest book is Mexico: Narco-Violence and a Failed State? (Transaction Press, 2010).

Introduction

On the eve of Sunday’s gubernatorial races in Mexico, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) looks to maintain its impetus to recapture the Los Pinos, the White House equivalent. Major factors in the upcoming contests are: (1) the PRI’s momentum, (2) the influence of incumbent governors and the “peñanietización” of candidacies, (3) the extraordinary importance of the Oaxaca as a laboratory for future alliances, (4) the unprecedented flow of resources into these battles, and (5) the goals of drug cartels, one of whom presumably executed the PRI’s gubernatorial candidate in Tamaulipas, Rodolfo Torre Cantú, six days before the July 4 balloting. This analysis, which includes a state-by-state breakdown of the nominees, winds up with a summary of the importance of these contests for Mexico and the United States.

The PRI’S Momentum

The PRI rebounded after losing every state and the Federal District (DF) in the 2006 presidential showdown. It amassed 45 percent of the ballots cast in the 20 states—embracing 63 percent of the national electorate—which held state and local elections in 2007 and 2008. It also took governorships from the National Action Party (PAN) in Yucatán (2007), Querétaro (2009), and San Luis Potosí (2009), even as it lost the Sonora statehouse to the PAN (2009).

The PRI triumphed in the mid-2009 Chamber of Deputies contests. The party boosted its presence in the 500-member lower chamber from 106 to 237 seats, while President Felipe Calderón’s PAN saw its numbers fall from 206 to 143 seats. The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), which captured one-third of the 2006 presidential vote with the messianic Andrés Manuel López Obrador at the head of the ticket, suffered a resounding setback three years later.

Magnified Role of Governors and the “Peñanietización” of Candidacies

During most of the PRI’s 71-year grip on the presidency, chief executives manipulated governors like bellhops. Iconic president Lázaro Cárdenas (1934-40) and Carlos Salinas (1988-94) removed half of the state executives—occasionally for promotions, more often to punish them. Many PRI governors secretly rejoiced when the PAN—first with the hapless Vicente Fox and then Calderon—ascended to the apex of the political pyramid. These triumphs ensured emancipation from central dominance over affairs in their bailiwicks. State executives now scorn Los Pinos, except when they descend on Mexico City during the federal budget’s preparation each December.

The national media shed some light on irresponsible and crooked federal officials, but governors call the shots in their territories. They rule like monarchs thanks to a compliant press (whose owners fear losing state advertising), economic bonds to the private sector (whose members seek government contracts), blatant manipulation of states legislatures (whose deputies receive extravagant salaries and benefits in return for rubber-stamping executive initiatives), and malleable state electoral institutes (whose counselors owe their well-paid jobs to governors).

The PAN charged Veracruz’s crafty Felipe Herrera Beltrán with earmarking public money for PRI candidates in his state’s 2007 municipal and state legislative races with a view to “burying” the opposition. Mexico State’s chief executive Enrique Peña Nieto has flaunted a formal Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) ban on out-of-season TV commercials by overloading the airways with self-promoting messages throughout the country. Former Morelos Governor Sergio Estrada Cagijal even won notoriety for taking girlfriends on flying trysts in his state’s “Helicopter of Love.”

Peñanietización characterizes the candidates selected by the year’s outgoing governors. Just as former Mexico State chief executive Arturo Montiel Rojas (2000-2006) handpicked handsome Peña Nieto as his successor, other retiring governors have chosen local “golden boys” who are photogenic, magnets for money, and—above all—prepared to shield their predecessors from corruption charges. This process is patently evident in Tamaulipas, with Governor Eugenio Hernández and candidate Rodolfo Torre Cantú; in Durango with Governor Ismael Hernández Deras and candidate Jorge Herrera Caldera; in Hidalgo with Governor Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong and candidate José Francisco Olvera Ruiz, and in Veracruz with Governor Herrera and candidate Javier Duarte de Ochoa.

Governors in drug-suffused states have also opted for individuals who may safeguard them against charges of involvement with narco-traffickers. The most salient example is Sinaloa’s retiring state leader, Jesús Aguilar Padilla, who handpicked Culiacán mayor Jesús Vizcarra Calderón as the PRI standard-bearer. This controversial move came after a photograph appeared of Vizcarra in a group that included Sinaloa Cartel capo (mafia boss) Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada García and other shady characters. The candidate claimed that that the picture was twenty years old and that both men were attending a celebration dedicated to the Virgin of Guadalupe.

Last year, the PRI’s retiring governor in Colima state spearheaded the election of his fair-haired boy, Mario Anguiano Moreno, whose family has multiple ties to drug trafficking. At the time of his swearing-in of the so-called “narco-gobernador,” Moreno had both a brother and a first cousin languishing behind bars in the United States.

Cancún Mayor Gregorio Sánchez Martínez, the Left’s candidate for governor of Quintana Roo state, has been arrested for hiding and laundering money for two major narco trafficking organizations, the Beltrán Leyva Organization and Los Zetas.

Oaxaca: “Mother of All Gubernatorial Contests in 2010”

The key election will take place in Oaxaca—the only place where all PRI opponents have rallied behind a single candidate, Gabino Cué Monteagudo. Although important for 2010, Oaxaca will test whether the self-proclaimed “revolutionary party” is on track to seize the big enchilada in 2012. The PRI has never lost Oaxaca; it is one of the five bastions of the party’s national strength. It is run by a dinosauric chief executive Ulises Ruiz Ortiz, a Machiavellian who dishes out pesos and political plums like water. He recently commented to a fellow governor, “Why do you spend so much on public works? Neither highways nor bridges vote. I don’t undertake public works. I have $42 million [dólares] for the election.” Ruiz is eager to become the next PRI president and, in 2018, he might even make a bid for the national presidency.

The leader of the PAN, which heads a four-party alliance, has accused Ruiz of provoking violence to incite fear, destabilizing the process, and justify intervention on behalf of his dauphin Eviel Pérez Magaña and other PRI candidates.

A win in Oaxaca by Cué Monteagudo’s “Alliance United for the Peace and Progress” coalition—featuring the PAN, the PRD, the PT, and Convergencia—would encourage key politicians, including PAN President César Nava Vázquez (a Calderón confidant) and PRD President Jesús Ortega Martínez, to reactivate the coalition for the 2011 gubernatorial race in Edomex, which boasts the country’s largest trove of voters. An opposition upset in this traditional PRI fiefdom would deliver a blow to Peña Nieto’s hope of waltzing to his party’s nomination en route to Los Pinos in 2012.

Cascade of Money into Gubernatorial Elections

The Mexican Congress spearheaded reforms in 2007 designed to concentrate state and local elections—once spread across the calendar—to a limited number of dates, thereby eliminating “permanent campaigns.” Legislators argued that the change would generate savings, reduce the campaign season, and promote public awareness of the parties, their candidates, and their platforms. The law of unintended consequences trumped this initiative. Mexican elections increasingly emulate their U.S. counterparts. Candidates have been out rallying support for months, if not years. They are also employing sophisticated consultants, public-relations firms, and pollsters as they use e-mails, YouTube, and Twitter. These factors have driven up the cost of contests. Veracruz leads the money chase with just days left before citizens go to the polls.

The drug cartels have blatantly involved themselves in these contests; most notably in the suspected murders of the PAN’s mayor candidate in Valle Hermosa and the PRI’s gubernatorial standard-bearer in Tamaulipas. Narco-syndicates may also have accomplished the mid-May disappearance of super-lawyer and former PAN presidential nominee, Diego “Jefe Diego” Fernández de Cevallos. Years ago, the capos concentrated on local races, especially on municipalities that lay along their trafficking routes. In recent years, they have become ever-more concerned about gubernatorial and national contests. A protected witness avers that, in the last contest in Michoacán, a criminal organization contributed two million pesos to favored mayoral candidates who, if elected, would receive a stipend of 200,000 pesos per month. The same anonymous source swore than current PRD governor Leonel Godoy Rangel, elected in November 2007, raked in huge sums from each leader of the drug cartel La Familia Michoacana—a charge he vehemently denies.

To lessen the capos’ involvement in selecting candidates, the PAN’s National Executive Committee (CEN) selected the gubernatorial contender for Tamaulipas. The CEN also chose several of its mayoral and state legislative candidates in Sinaloa, home to the infamous Sinaloa Cartel.

Although not federal elections, the mid-2010 gubernatorial face-offs have national consequences. The Oaxaca showdown will indicate whether the PRI’s old guard can prevail against an attractive competitor. The outcome is especially important to the aspirations of Peña Nieto who, despite a disquieting lack of knowledge about issues, remains the front-runner for both the PRI nomination and the presidential contest. The success of a PAN-Left pact could enable the parties involved to mount a credible challenge to the PRI in 2012.

Conclusions

The recent executions of political candidates and the attendant climate of fear will dampen voter turnout on Sunday, which--ironically--will redound to the benefit of the PRI because of its better machine.
Lower levels of participation will hurt attractive anti-establishment candidates: Xochitl Galvez (Hidago), Gabino Cue (Oaxaca), and Mario “Malova” Lopez Valdes (Sinaloa).
The cartels don't seek a failed state. Rather, they want “dual sovereignty”--that is, to pay off public officials in return for a blind eye.
The fear sparked by this murder may move citizens to elect a strong law-and-order candidate in the 2012 president contest. Will voters prefer a well-financed, telegenic “golden boy” to a savvy, tough-as-nails political operator?
It is more likely that Los Zetas killed Tamaulipas gubernatorial candidate Torre Cantu. The other major syndicates in the border state—the Gulf and Sinaloa cartels—want to make money and seek to avoid gratuitous murders. In contrast, Los Zetas want to embellish their reputation as the cruelest criminal organization in Latin America, thus facilitating their drug-trafficking, human smuggling, kidnapping, contraband sales, murder-for-hire, loan-sharking, petroleum theft, and other felonies.
Past PRI governors in Tamaulipas made “arrangements” with the Gulf Cartel. Now the unscrupulous Zetas are challenging the Gulf Cartel for control, and these bloodthirsty paramilitaries are making up the rules as they go along. Reportedly, they have at least one training facility in Texas.
Two lessons emerge from the escalating violence that is spilling across the border: the United States must increase the technical assistance and training of their Mexican counterparts, and, above all, Mexico’s establishment must become engaged in the battle against the brutal underworld. To this point, most of the nation’s elite have cocooned themselves from the mayhem—thanks to state-of-the art security systems in their homes, bodyguards, skilled drivers, overseas’ education for their children, and homes in the United States.

July 4, 2010 Gubernatorial Races in Mexico at a Glance
State	PRI Candidate	PAN Candidate	Left Candidate	Coalitions	Analysis
Aguascalientes	Sen. Carlos Lozano de la Torre; born Feb. 9, 1950, Aguascalientes, Ags.; studiedindustrial development and new cities in the U.K.; state secretary of economic development/ Ags. (1992-98); secretary of economic development in Zacatecas (1998-04); and senator (2006-present)	Martín Orozco Sandoval; born June 25, 1967, Santa María de los Ángeles, VC; studied public accounting at the U. Panamericana/ (Bonaterre); practiced accounting (1983-95); state secretary of social development in Ags city (1999-01); state legislator (2001-04); mayor of Aguascalientes city (2005-07); served as National President. of the Mexican Association of Municipalities; PAN’s National Executive Committee selected him as the nominee; on Feb. 2010, a judge ordered his arrest for influence peddling and the state electoral institute voided his candidacy—a move the TEPJF overturned.	State legislator Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez; degrees in law and social sciences; primary school teacher; president of PRD’s municipal committee in Ags (1997-00); losing candidate for multiple offices; member of Aguascalientes city council (2002-04); member of the state legislature (2007-present); and close to Zacatecas Gov. Amalia García Medina. The Partido del Trabajo (PT) has nominated Héctor Quiroz García.	The “Alliance for Your Well-being,” made up of the PRI, PVEM, and PANAL, is backing Lozano de la Torre. The Alliance “Let’s Unite Aguascalientes,” composed of the PRD and Convergencia, is backing Ruvalcaba Gámez.	Lozano de la Torre is likely to win because of the low approval of outgoing PAN Gov. Luis Armando Reynoso Femat, who refused to endorse Orozco and is closer to the PRI nominee, a fellow businessman; the PRI has astutely named popular ex-Deputy Lorena Martínez Rdg. as mayoral candidate for state capital; the charges against Orozco Sandoval have kept the PAN off stride; in a mid-May CGE/Milenio poll, Lozano (39.9%) led Orozco (26.6%), and Ruvalcaba (4.5%).
Chihuahua	Federal Deputy César Horacio Duarte Jáquez; born April 14, 1963; Hidalgo del Parral, Chih.; law degree (UACJ); federal deputy (2000-03; 2006-09), president of Chamber of Deputies 2008-09; chosen by the party’s National Executive Comm; outgoing Gov. José Reyes Baeza, who wanted to name his successor, is now backing Duarte as seen by his brother’s visible presence in the nominee’s campaign.	Carlos Borruel Baquera; born Dec. 7, 1964, Chihuahua, Chih. BA in Letras Españoles; MA in public administration (ITC): journalist for El Norte (1992-96); Chih. city councilman; SEDESOL subdelegate; state legislator (2004-07); and mayor of the state capital (2007-10).	Víctor Orozco Orozco; born in late 1940s/early 1950s; law degree (UAC); MA in political science (UAM); PhD in political science (UNAM); social science professor at various universities (1974-04; and former PRD state president.	Popular Front for Chihuahua spearheaded by the PT: Rubén Aguilar Jiménez; born 1943; Ojinaga, Chih.; law degree (UAC); social activist, who created the Popular Defense Comm. that seized land for the poor; a PT founder (1991) ; party’s only state president; losing PT nominee for gov. (1992); state legislator (2000-03); and federal deputy (1985-88; 2006-09).	Duarte Jáquez. PRI dominated state anticipated low turnout in strife-torn Cd. Juárez, where nearly half the state’s voters reside, benefits the PRI’s superior machine; and a mid-May El Universal poll found Duarte (57%) leading Borruel (39%) and Orozco (4%).
Durango	Federal Deputy Jorge Herrera Caldera; born Jan. 8, 1963; Durango, Dgo; accountant; mayor of Dgo (2007-09); federal deputy (2009-10).	José Rosas Aispuro Torres; born Oct. 19, 1961; holds BA, MA, and PhD degrees in law; PRI state legislator (1998-01); PRI federal deputy (1994-97; 2006-09); resigned from PRI on Feb. 1, 2010 to accept nomination of other parties.	Gabino Martínez Guzmán (PT); backed by students at the Juárez University in Durango State where he teaches; even though, Raúl Salinas founded the PT to siphon support from the PRD, the party can hope for only a handful of votes.	“Let’s Unify Durango, composed of the PRD, PT, and Convergencia, have lined up behind Rosas Aispuro.	Jorge Herrera Caldera; enjoys the support of outgoing Gov. Ismael Henández Deras in this PRI bastion; an early May Mitofsky poll found Herrera (49%) leading Rosas Aispuro (23.3).
Hidalgo	José Francisco Olvera Ruiz; born June 15, 1956; Pachuca, Hgo; MA degree in public administration (ISSTM and UVM); government sec. for outgoing Gov. Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong; mayor of Pachuca 2009-10) and the choice of Osorio Chong.		Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz; born Feb. 22, 1963; Tepatepec, Hgo; studied computer engineering (UNAM); a specialist in “intelligent buildings,” she helped design the information systems for the World Trade Center in Mexico City and la Torre Siglum; selected one of 100 future global leaders by the World Economic Forum; and of Otomí descent, Pres. Fox named her head of the National Comm. for the Development of Indigenous Communities.	The “Let’s Unity Hidalgo” coalition, made up of the PAN, PRD, and Convergencia, backs Xóchitl Gálvez Ruiz, who connects well with the people and the media.	José Francisco Olvera; Gov. Osorio Chong’s influence has been intensified by the decision to build an oil refinery in Hgo; if the Left were united, the attractive, reform-minded Gálvez could have won, but the losing PRD contender for the nomination, Sen. José Guadarrama, is opposing her; and a late May Mitofsky poll found Olvera (52.6%) well ahead of Ruiz (35.4%).
Oaxaca	Eviel Pérez Magaña; born June 6, 1963; San Juan Bautista Tuxtepec, Oax,; studied business administration; mayor of Tuxtepec (2001-03); federal deputy (2003-04); state government service (2004-09); federal deputy (2009-10); backed by outgoing gov. Ulises Ruiz.		Gabino Cué Monteagudo; born Feb. 23, 1966, Oaxaca, Oax.; BA economics (ITESM); MA (CESEM in Spain); PhD in finance and public sector economics (Complutense U./Madrid); advisor to the D.F. sec. of government (1992); various Oaxaca state and federal positions, including private sec. to the sec. of Gobernación; and subsec. of social comm.; mayor of Oax (2001-03); losing gubernatorial candidate (2004); and senator (2006-12).	“Alliance United for the Peace and Progress” coalition, featuring the PAN + the Left, has aligned with Cué as its standard-bearer. The coalition “For the Transformation of Oaxaca,” made up by the PRI and PVEM, is backing Pérez Magaña.	Gabino Cué has a fifty-fifty chance of winning in view of Ruiz’ unpopularity, if the count is fair—a big IF; three ex-govs—Helado Ramírez, Diódoro Carrasco, and José Murat--who dislike each other are backing Cué; he also boasts the support of Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Teachers’ Union chief Elba Esther Gordillo; and a mid-May Parametría poll found Pérez (49%) neck-and-neck with Cué (47%).
Puebla	Javier López Zavala; born Jan. 9, 1969; Pijijiapan, Chiapas; law degree (BUAP); state sec. of Government (1992-97; 2005-07); director-general of DIF (1999-02); state legislator (2001-04); campaign manager for outgoing Gov. Mario Marín Torres).	Sen. Rafael Javier Moreno Valle; born June 30, 1968; Puebla, Pue.; law degree (Boston U.); federal deputy; state legislator; bolted PRI in 2006; senator (2006-12); active in campaigns of previous PRI governors; and won 70% of the vote in a Feb. 14 PAN primary.	Armando Echeverry Beltrán (PT); energy specialist.		López Zavala faces a strong challenge, but a mid-May Mitofsky poll showed him with 44.7% of preferences over Moreno Valle (36.6%) and Echeverry (7.1%)—with a high level of undecideds.
Quintana Roo	Federal Deputy Roberto “Beto” Borge Angulo; born Dec. 29, 1979; Cozumel, QRoo; BA public admin.; various state posts, including private sec. to outgoing Gov. Féliz González Canto, state PRI pres.; and federal deputy (2009-12).	Alicia Concepción Ricalde Magaña; born Nov. 10, 1965, Qroo; state legislator (1996-99); Isla Mujeres city council member (1999); delegate to the National Agrarian Registry in QRoo; and Isla Mujeres mayor (2008-present).	Gregorio Sánchez Martínez; born March 18, 1963; Tecpan de Galeana, Gro; civil engineer; owner of several firms; elected Cancún mayor with the backing of the PRD, PT, and Convergencia; and the state electoral institute disallowed his candidacy because of alleged ties to organized crime.	“Todos por Quintana Roo” coalition, composed of the PRD, PT, and Convergencia, was backing Sánchez.	Borge should win easily behind a unified PRI; charges of working with drug cartels have landed the Left’s Sánchez Martínez in prison.
Sinaloa	Outgoing Culiacán Mayor Jesús Vizcarra Calderón; born March 17, 1960; Culiacán; rich businessman; mayor of Culiacán (2007-present).			Se Senator Mario “MALOVA” López Valdez; born Jan. 18, 1957; Cubiri de la Loma, Sin; self-made businessman; ex-priísta; enjoys the backing of PAN, the PRD, and Convergencia.	MALOVA is giving PRI nominee Vizcarra Calderón a strong race in a state that the PAN nearly captured in 2004; citizens cite the seriousness of the drug trade; still, a late May GCE/Milenio poll showed Vizcarra (48.4%) ahead of MALOVA (37.4%).
Tamaulipas	Federal Deputy Rodolfo Torre Cantú; murdered on June 28; born Feb. 14, 1964, Cd. Victoria, Tamps; MD degree (UAS); physician and party activist; backed by former governor Manuel Cavazos Lerma (1992-98).	José Julián Sacramento Garza; born Aug. 26, 1956, Matamoros Tamps; degree in Agricultural Engineering (UANL); federal deputy (2003-06); senator (2006-present). To mitigate drug cartel influence, the PAN’s CEN selected Sacramento plus 43 mayoral nominees and the 36 state legislative aspirants.	No candidate.		The PRI had never lost a governorship in this state and was on the way to a landslide this year before Torre Cantú died at the hands of assassins on June 28. It remains to be seen whether authorities will postpone the election.
Tlaxcala	Mariano González Zarur Born 1949; Apizaco, Tlax; CPA (UNAM); joined PRI in 1970; Apizaco mayor (1989-92); senator (2000-2006) ; narrowly lost governorship to Héctor Ortiz Ortiz in 2004; federal deputy (2006-09); Garnered the nomination over Lorena Cuéllar, the presumed choice of PRI President Beatriz Paredes Rangel.	Adriana Dávila Fernández; born Dec. 30, 1970, Apizaco; BA in communication science; reporter for El Universal-Tlaxcala (1994) and La Noticia (1996); coordinated Calderón presidential campaign in state (2006); federal deputy 2006-09; selected by PAN National Executive Committee to seek governorship.	Sen. Minerva Hernández Ramos; born Sept. 15, 1969; Tlax; BA in public accounting (UAT); MA in public accounting (UAT); federal deputy (2003-06); senator (2006-present).	“United for Tlaxcala,” composed of the PRI, the PVEM, and the PS, is backing González Zarur. “For the Progress of Tlaxcala,” made up of the PAN, PANAL, and the Alianza Ciudadana, is supporting Dávila Fernández. “Transparency and Honesty for Tlaxcala,” comprised of PRD, PT, Convergencia, and members of the DIA, has lined up behind Hernández Ramos.	Too Close to Call A mid-May GCE/Milenio poll found Dávila (26.3%) barely leading González Zarur (25.6%), with Hernández running third.
Veracruz	Javier Duarte de Ochoa; born Sept. 19, 1973; Veracruz, VC; BA in economics (Instituto Complutense de Madrid); MA in law, economics, and public policy Instituto Universitario Ortega y Gasset; MA in public administration (IPADE); and PhD in economics (Instituto Complutense); public posts, including General Coordinator for Promoting Social Participation (Gobernación/ 1995-7); subsec. Of finance and administration (2004-08/VC); sec. of finances and planning (2008-09/VC); private sec. to Deputy Fidel Herrera (1997-2000); and federal deputy (2006-09).	Former Deputy Miguel Ángel Yunes Linares; born Dec. 5, 1952, Soledad de Doblado, VC; law degree (UV); diploma in political analysis (UIA); held party and oficial posts, including legal adviser to V/C government (1977); state legislator (1980); CNOP state coordinator (1981-82); oficial mayor of the Gran Comisión of the Chamber of Deputies (1982-85); DF committeeman (1987-88); CEN technical sec. (1991); federal deputy (1991-92); sec. Of government and coordinator of VC State Public Security Council (1992-97); under-sec. of public security (Gobernación); and exec. sec. of the National Public Security System (2000-06).	Sen. Dante Delgado Rannauro (Convergencia); born 1950; Alvarado, VC; law degree (UV); auxiliary secretary to prívate secretary of President Echeverría (1974); posts in Department of Fisheries (1977-78); SEP delegate in Yuc., Oax., and VC (1979-83); SEP subsec. (1983-85); sec. gen. of VC government (1986-88); interim gov. (1988-93); amb. to Italy (1993); imprisoned for fraud; and in 1997 left the PRI to form Convergenia.	The “Veracruz Forward” alliance, composed of the PRI, PVEM, and PV, is backing Duarte. The “Viva Veracruz” coalition, made up of PAN and PANAL, is backing Yunes. The “For Changing Veracruz,” comprised of the PRD, PT, and Convergencia, is backing Delgado.	Duarte de Ochoa: Wheeler-dealer Gov. Herrera has firm control on the PRI’s apparatus; two of the PAN aspirants for the nomination—Sen. Juan BuenoTorio and Gerardo Buganza Salmerón oppose Yunes; in fact, Buganza left the PAN to back Duarte.
Zacatecas	Miguel Alejandro Alonso Reyes; born Sept. 20, 1971; Zacatecas, Zac; adjunct secretary to the Mexican ambassador in the U.K. (1993-94); adviser to the DF secretary of social development (1995); adviser to the chairman of the Federal Pact Comm. of the Senate; mayor of Zacatecas (2001-04); ex PRD state legislator; state secretary of tourism; close to Ricardo Monreal Ávila.	Cuauhtémoc Calderón Galván; born July 19, 1975, Zacatecas; Zacatecas mayor (2007-10); Sen. José Isabel Trejo Reyes, who lost an internal primary—45.1% to 51.4%, might have been a stronger candidate; Gov. García reportedly rounded up votes for Calderón, perceiving him the weaker of the two.	Sen. Antonio Mejía Haro; born June 10, 1957, Juchipila, Zac.; degree in veterinary science (UAZ); state legislator (1998-2001); state sec. of Agricultural Development (2000-2003); federal deputy (2003-06); senator (2006-present); twice director of faculty f medicine, veterinary science, and zoology at the UAZ; (choice of outgoing governor Amalia García).	“Alliance for Hope,” made up of the PRI, PVEM, and PANAL, are backing Alonso Reyes.	Alonso Reyes. A split in the left may prevent outgoing Gov. Amalia García Medina imposing her dauphin, Mejía Haro; scandals have plagued García--with the result that a late May GCE/Milenio poll showed Alonso Reyes (44.3%) ahead of Calderón (22.4%) and Mejía (11.7)—with Monreal running fourth (9%); Ricardo Monreal might even persuade his brother to drop out of the race—for a price—and throw his support to the PRI candidate; Miguel Alonso. good looks appeals…”

You may forward this email as you like provided that you send it in its entirety, attribute it to the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and include our web address (www.fpri.org). If you post it on a mailing list, please contact FPRI with the name, location, purpose, and number of recipients of the mailing list.

If you receive this as a forward and would like to be placed directly on our mailing lists, send email to FPRI@fpri.org. Include your name, address, and affiliation. For further information, contact Alan Luxenberg at (215) 732-3774 x105.

Become an FPRI member