Outside Publications

Outside Publications

When Deterrence Fails

The attacks in Paris are yet another reminder that we face enemies who cannot be deterred. The certainty of their own death did not deter the Islamist terrorists who killed in the streets of Paris. But the failure of deterrence is not simply a problem at the tip of the enemy’s spear—namely, the megalomaniacal and perverted individual who desires to blow up himself (or herself). It is also not exclusive to the various groups and cells of Islamist persuasion.

The War on ISIS: What’s the Endgame?

In August 1941, Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt met off the coast of Newfoundland to outline a shared vision for the post-World War II era.

ISIS and al Qaeda Race to the Bottom

As they watched their vaunted Islamic State (also known as ISIS) lose ground to Kurdish advances over the past month, ISIS fanboys had fewer reasons to cheer or to make their way to Syria and Iraq. But then things started to change.

The Hidden Danger of Safe Zones in Syria

In 1993, during the brutal civil war in Bosnia, the United Nations declared the Bosnian Muslim town of Srebrenica to be a “safe area” for civilians, protected by several hundred Dutch peacekeepers. Two years later, on July 11, 1995, Bosnian Serb units overran the town. The out-gunned Dutch fired warning shots but decided not to put up any serious resistance.

Paranoid in Poland

The Law and Justice (PiS) party’s stunning victory in Poland’s October 25 parliamentary elections has left analysts wondering just how worried they should be. PiS won an absolute majority in the Poland’s lower house of parliament, the Sejm—the first time any party has done so since 1989.

Hope for the Western Sahara

The legendary Sahara covers a vast stretch of northern Africa, and includes a 100,000-mile expanse that is the southern half of my homeland, the Kingdom of Morocco. Regrettably, this stretch of land is also home to one of the longest enduring, and perhaps the most uselessly destructive, conflicts on the continent.

Friendly Fire: The Risks and Rewards of Red Teaming

Despite all the fascination with new technologies and religious extremism, there is little new in war. So often, great ideas have origins that can be seen in ancient history, going back further than Herodotus or Thucydides. This sparkling book on red teaming is another example.

A Legal Analysis of the Philippine-China Arbitration Ruling

Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions – especially about the future.” Last week’s ruling in the Philippine-China arbitral tribunal, however, sheds light on the likely outcome of the China-Philippine arbitration case and illuminates an end game to the crisis. In short, the tribunal’s decision to determine the legal entitlements of ten disputed features in the South China Sea significantly weakens China’s hand and benefits the Philippines and the other claimant states.

Meeting Russia’s New Nuclear Challenge

Even as the Obama administration continues to ponder just how it might respond to the turn of events in Syria in light of Russia’s ongoing intervention there, it has studiously avoided addressing a second, far more significant challenge that Russia is posing to the West, that of its nuclear weapons posture.

Triangular Politics in Syria: Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia

During three weeks in September, Russia deployed its air force in Syria to support Bashar al-Asad’s increasingly weak and vulnerable regime in the civil war that began following the 2011 rebellion.[1] Officially, Vladimir Putin explained the new Russian intervention as a bid to defeat the Islamic State (IS) in Syria.[2] However, on September 30, Russia initiated air strikes against the Syrian rebels targeting Asad’s regime.