January and February 2020 – Russia’s Media Mentions of 2020 Presidential Candidates (Update 2)

March 2, 2020

Post by Rachel Chernaskey

Since FIE 2020’s last update on Russian state-sponsored media, the 2020 election landscape has evolved considerably—some candidates have dropped out, others have surged. As the candidates weathered the Iowa caucuses and subsequent primaries, Kremlin media shifted its coverage of the race to advance new narratives, both about the candidates themselves and the integrity of U.S. elections. 

Kremlin media continued its pattern of negative coverage for establishment Democratic candidates, and unfavorable mentions for former Mayor Michael Bloomberg increased noticeably. Former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Amy Klobuchar and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg also continued to receive more negative coverage than positive from RT and Sputnik News (see Figure 12 below for data on mentions for candidates polling at 5% or more nationally).

Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s coverage represents the most significant change in Kremlin content. Russian state media is particularly sharp toward Bloomberg: 55% of his total mentions were negative, the highest percentage in the field. Such negative coverage of Vice President Biden (who received the highest total count of negative mentions among Democrats) was expected. Putin’s administration naturally characterizes Biden in 2020—a centrist, establishment Democrat from the Obama era—as it did Clinton in 2016: an adversary. But Bloomberg, a one-time moderate Republican who rarely talks foreign policy would not necessarily be a Kremlin opponent if elected the way Biden would be.

This Kremlin denigration of Bloomberg suggests their media coverage is not so much for the long-term purposes of shaping foreign policy or to “create chaos,” but rather supports last week’s revelations that U.S. officials briefed the House Intelligence Committee that the Kremlin favors Trump and separately notified the Sanders campaign that the Kremlin may be boosting them in some way. (Following the report that his campaign had been notified about such efforts, Sanders condemned Russian interference in the U.S. election.) 

While Kremlin media often pits populist candidates (Sanders, Trump) against establishment candidates (Biden, Bloomberg), RT and Sputnik News often highlight similarities between Mayor Bloomberg and President Trump. By portraying Bloomberg and Trump as cut from the same cloth on everything from status and wealth to alleged misconduct with women, the Kremlin pursues a separate socioeconomic wedge that may nudge Democratic voters more toward Sanders or toward general apathy about political participation and voting. (For a more in-depth look at Kremlin support for Senator Sanders and President Trump, see this post from last week.)

Kremlin media also took to mocking the revival of what it refers to as “Russiagate.” One RT op-ed openly pushes the conspiracy theory, suggesting “DNC insiders” are “weaponizing” fear of Russian meddling in 2020 elections as a way to install their preferred establishment candidate. A Sputnik article about the South Carolina primary mocks American “fears of potential ‘Russian hacking’” of the election.

To date, the FIE 2020 team has analyzed more than 3,800 stories and 6,500 total mentions published by RT and Sputnik News since January 1, 2019. Here are some of the highlights in candidate mentions from December 29, 2019 to March 2, 2020—our third assessment and second update since November 2019: 

• President Donald Trump’s mentions shifted slightly more negative
  • President Trump’s negative mentions reached 25% of his total volume, a 3% increase since our last assessment. 
  • Negative mentions of Trump continue to surface mainly in a foreign policy context
    • The Trump administration’s recently announced Israeli-Palestinian plan has gotten considerable negative coverage
    • One divergence from this trend appears to be Trump’s recent peace deal with the Taliban, which has been well-received by the Russian state media
  • Content portraying Trump as mocking toward the other candidates, especially Bloomberg, appears to have also increased, portraying Trump negatively while simultaneously dumping on Democratic rivals
• Senator Bernie Sanders continued to receive more positive mentions than negative
  • Since the Iowa caucuses, Russian media has increasingly pitted the Democratic establishment against Sanders in stories, portraying Sanders as the victim of alleged corruption by the DNC seeking to rig the nomination process against Sanders 
  • Though Russia pushed similar narratives about Sanders during the 2016 election, there are new Sanders narratives in 2020:
    • New establishment figures opposing Sanders – Mayors Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg are often portrayed as part of alleged Democratic corruption
    • Need for transparency – Despite Sanders’s campaign pushing for more transparency in the caucuses for 2020, he remains a victim of DNC bias
    • 2020 is more corrupt than 2016 – The notion that alleged corruption is far worse in 2020 than it was in 2016
  • Kremlin media continues to highlight positive polling and results for Sanders
  • Negative coverage of Sanders generally touches on any possible Sanders divergence from Russia’s preferred policy or highlights issues that inflame the moderate electorate within the Democratic party  
• RT and Sputnik News push hard against former Mayor Michael Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg’s negative mentions were overwhelmingly related to:
    • His status as an establishment/elite figure
    • His wealth as a means to “buy the Democratic nomination”
    • Wedge issues, particularly racial issues and his history with women
    • Age – Bloomberg is painted as out-of-touch
  • Though at times the Russian media’s coverage isn’t overtly critical of Bloomberg, even neutral coverage nearly always mentions his wealth and elite status, further amplifying the populist-versus-establishment approach of Kremlin coverage
• Senator Elizabeth Warren continued to garner more negative coverage than positive, a divergence from the populist-versus-establishment narrative observed in match-ups of Sanders versus establishment candidates
  • Warren’s negative coverage compared to Sanders—despite little difference between the candidates’ policy proposals—may signal an attempt to highlight Sanders as the clear Kremlin preference to Democratic establishment candidates
• Negative mentions of Mayor Pete Buttigieg shifted in the wake of the Iowa caucuses
  • Before recently suspending his 2020 campaign, Buttigieg saw conspiratorial coverage alleging his role in rigging of the Iowa caucuses and other primary races against Sanders
• Though Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is currently polling nationally around 1%, Russia still talks about her
  • RT recently wrote an article about Gabbard’s statements in a video posted on Twitter alleging “deceptive efforts” by the Trump administration and mainstream media to paint extremists as “freedom fighters.”