The last three months have been a flurry of activity in Latvia as the country entered its pre-election season in June. The 14 parties running for parliament have sought to curry favor among the electorate — passing out pamphlets on street corners, aggressively posting on social media, and plastering the faces of their leading candidates on the side of buildings. Through October 3, voters in Latvia — and its growing diaspora, which makes up a third of the eligible voters in the Riga constituency — will cast their ballot for their representatives.

The political spectrum in Latvia is not linear. Politicians who diverge on minority language protections, for example, may share the same stances on family values. And, while parties easily come and go, many of the people behind them are mainstays in the political scene. As of the September LSM/SKDS poll, seven parties seem poised to pass the 5% threshold needed to enter the Saeima. (Of those polled, 19% say they are undecided and another 15% say they won’t vote.) The top parties, in order of current popularity, are:

• United List (Apvienotais saraksts, AS) — conservative/regionalist party and current coalition leader under Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs;

• Sovereign Power/Alliance of Young Latvians (Suverēnā vara/Apvienība Jaunlatvieši, SV/AJ) — populist, traditional values-oriented party focused on Russian minority politics;

• Latvia First (Latvija pirmajā vietā, LPV) populist, Christian right nationalism centered around the leadership of so-called oligarch Ainārs Šlesers;

• Progressives (Progresīvie, PRO) — social democrats, proponents of green politics and pro-Europeanism;

• National Alliance (Nacionālā Apvienība, NA) — right-wing nationalists, soft Eurosceptics, anti-Russian;

• Union of Greens and Farmers (Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība, ZZS) — agrarian, regionalist, economic nationalists, soft-Eurosceptics; and

• New Unity (Jaunā vienotība, JV) — center-right, pro-European party that has led the government for 14 of the last 17 years.

Where these parties stand on defense and security, economic and demographic stability, and social values has been central to the debates in these elections. (Voters can use LSM Party Sorter and Spektri.lv as resources to determine how they align with the party lists. I also recommend reading commentary by journalists Pauls Raudseps and Mike Collier, and historian Una Bergmane, or watching the Baltic Initiative’s recent event discussing the elections.)

The first of these topics comes as no surprise. In May, Latvia’s governing coalition fell, its demise accelerated by a drone incursion in eastern Latvia. Alerts continued throughout the summer as Russia intensified grey zone or subthreshold attacks in the region and Europe more broadly. Many read these as efforts to intimidate citizens into pressuring their governments to ease support for Ukraine; Latvia has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest advocates. Among the highest-polling parties, SV/AJ stands alone in advocating for reductions in defense spending and ending support to Ukraine; its politicians are also unable to unequivocally affirm that Crimea is Ukraine.

Security concerns merge with economic questions, as politicians debate the merits of completely stopping trade with Russia and Belarus versus renewing economic partnerships across the eastern borders (LPV, SV/AJ). Spending on expensive infrastructure has raised hackles, including over Rail Baltica — the beleaguered project attempting to link the Baltic countries with European standard railway gauges — and airBaltic, the national airline undergoing financial restructuring with the help of state funds. Inflation and the cost of living remain kitchen table issues, and many parties have pledged to amend tax structures.

Meanwhile, the existential threat of a declining birthrate has prompted many parties to include increased social support for families in their platforms, often in tandem with very “traditional” understandings of gender roles (LPV, SV/AJ, NA, AS, ZZS). Much lip service has been paid towards increasing re-emigration of the diaspora. On the other hand, bemoaning the so-called dangers of immigration from third countries — particularly students from South Asia — has been a main theme of the NA, which has also dealt with fallout from recent racist incidents linked to its politicians.

Social norms and values writ large are also at play. Last year, the Saeima’s decision to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention on the prevention of violence against women less than two years after ratifying the treaty sparked one of the largest popular backlashes in recent history. Politicians opted to kick the can down the road, meaning the outcome of this election will determine whether Latvia remains a signatory (PRO, JV) or if it will back away from European consensus in favor of “traditional” values (LPV, SV/AJ, ZZS). NA and AS have recently declined to solidify their position, though both parties voted to withdraw from the convention last year.

Beyond party stances on the issues themselves, questions of election security are also at play. The State Security Service (Valsts drošības dienests, VDD) has “not identified any significant and systematic efforts by Russia or other countries hostile to Latvia to influence the results of the Saeima elections,” though VDD has not ruled out the possibility. The role of artificial intelligence is also concerning. Researchers noted that chatbots are providing different assessments of political parties, depending on whether users write in Latvian or Russian. Russian responses draw from compromised information, and “the researchers stress that AI algorithms can be manipulated by flooding the network with ‘convenient’ content.” Votes will be hand-counted this year, a decision made after glitches plagued ballot counting machines in last year’s municipal elections.

Latvia’s political structure is such that no party is likely to win an outright majority. Nor is it guaranteed that the party with the most votes will succeed in forming a government. In 2018, despite JV suffering the biggest electoral loss and entering parliament with the fewest seats, Krišjānis Kariņš ended up not only as prime minister, but as Latvia’s longest-serving democratic head of government.

Given the ideological diversity of the leading parties, coalition building will likely be difficult. But in the starkest formulations, the question is whether or not Latvia will continue its long trajectory toward deeper European integration and solidification of democratic norms and support for Ukraine, or if voters will place their trust in populist candidates who embrace a turn toward more strongman politics, normalization of the relationship with Russia, and an emphasis on exclusionary values. How the chips fall will significantly affect not only Latvia’s domestic politics, but also its international and security outlook.