NATO

High North, High Tension: The End of Arctic Illusions

For a long time, the Arctic was seen as a zone free of geopolitical tensions. Apart from joint military drills between NATO members and Russia that were discontinued after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, “High North, low tension” was the...

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When Diplomacy Goes to War

As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, several questions remain about what the US government would have, could have, and should have done differently since the war started. Should the United States have funneled more weapons and...

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Seven Lessons from Latvia a Year After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

A year has passed since Russia escalated its war against Ukraine to a full-scale invasion. When writing about the first Latvian reactions to the Russian attack, we noted the geographical proximity with both aggressor and victim made Latvians feel...

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China Is Finally Making Progress on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway

China has struggled to gain support from its Central Asian neighbors to build the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway since the 1990s. The CKU railway is crucial to China for two interconnected purposes—to advance its geopolitical interests and to secure favorable...

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The Turkish Veto: Why Erdogan Is Blocking Finland and Sweden’s Path to NATO

Finland and Sweden grew closer to Western institutions in the post-Cold War era, and EU accession in 1995 meant that Stockholm and Helsinki finally abandoned their neutrality policies. Both countries remained militarily non-aligned but cooperation with NATO increased through...

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Turkey’s New Foreign Policy: Ankara’s Ambitions, Regional Responses, and Implications for the United States

  For the past century, Turkey’s foreign policy has been driven by the need to preserve the achievements of the Lausanne Treaty in the face of often serious threats from major powers. As a result, Turkey was a predominantly...

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How the Battle for the Donbas Shaped Ukraine’s Success

As the Russian-Ukrainian War enters the winter, Ukrainians have reason to be cautiously optimistic about the course of the war. Following a strategic offensive at the end of August in multiple regions, Ukrainian forces have retaken nearly all of...

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Article 5 for the Next Decade of NATO

Collective defense is at the heart of European security. Enshrined within Article 5 of its founding treaty, NATO allies see “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack...

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The Baltics Predicted the Suspension of the Ukraine Grain Deal — and Contributed to its Resumption

The Ukraine grain deal, formally known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, is a joint agreement by Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye that promises a safe Black Sea corridor for commercial ships to export grains from Ukraine under the supervision...

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The Art of the Possible: Minimizing Risks as a New European Order Takes Shape

  Note: Research for this analysis was completed on October 13, 2022. The text does not reflect events since that date. Executive Summary Russia’s war on Ukraine is poised to bring into being a new European security order. Although...

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