Japan’s Counterstrike Gamble: Building Deterrence Under Pressure

Japan's defense landscape is entering a period of acute strategic pressure. Intensifying military activity from neighboring powers is heightening volatility across the region, even as Tokyo confronts deepening uncertainty about the long-term reliability of its traditional security guarantees.

The Ministry of Defense's push for a record budget reflects this new reality, which is a direct response to rising regional tensions and a military technology landscape that is evolving faster than institutions can adapt. A new National Defense Strategy that reflect the new realities of combat and security is expected to be released before the end of the year. The stakes are compounding. Japan's implementation of counterstrike authority is a landmark shift in its defense posture, and it is moving forward at the same moment Russia is escalating pressure over the Kuril Islands and the United States signals new unpredictability toward South Korea, a fellow treaty ally.

Each of these developments alone would warrant close scrutiny; together, they raise a pressing question: can Japan build a credible counterstrike capability fast enough, and coherently enough, to function as a genuine regional deterrent?

Join FPRI for a discussion with Mirna Galic, Katsuya Tsukamoto, and Zack Cooper as they examine the three pillars required for counterstrike to succeed: technical capability, strategic and decisional frameworks, and command and control. The panel will assess progress made in each area, identify where critical gaps remain, and explore concrete options for accelerating development of these capabilities in the years ahead.