Rwanda—the small, landlocked country in East Africa known colloquially as the “land of a thousand hills”—has arguably gained outsized influence in Africa in recent years. Previously known most prominently for the horrors enacted against ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus during the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has successfully charted a new path of unification, economic growth, and stability under long-time president Paul Kagame. On a visit to Kigali in 2022, Secretary Antony Blinken characterized the transformation of Rwanda as “rising from the ashes of genocide to become a global destination for innovation, for investment, for tourism.” The Rwandese have overcome colonial rule, social revolution, coups, civil war, and genocide throughout the country’s difficult history. Today it stands as a model for post-war reconstruction and rapid economic development. As Rwanda steadily increases its soft power and global influence, the US must be strategic in navigating the bilateral relationship. Despite the remarkable progress, President Kagame’s administration has been marred by human rights abuses and authoritarian tendencies. A balanced, thoughtful approach to engagement with an increasingly powerful Rwanda will ensure that the US maintains positive relations with the East African leader while also not neglecting its own values of democracy, civil liberties, and good governance.

Rwandan Soft Power on the Rise – What it is, and Why it Matters

According to the Global Soft Power Index, a numeric measure of soft power based on expert research, Rwanda ranks 104 out of 193 countries, only eclipsed by eight sub-Saharan African nations—South Africa (43); Nigeria (79); Ghana (85); Tanzania (93); Senegal (94); Kenya (95); Mauritius (97); and Madagascar (103). The index assesses individual states’ levels of familiarity, reputation, and influence, as well as performance in key areas such as business and trade, governance, international relations, culture and heritage, and media. This ranking indicates that Rwanda enjoys positive international image and influence, and at higher levels than many of its regional African neighbors.

A concept originally attributed to American political scientist Joseph Nye, soft power refers to the ability to shape preferences of others in a non-coercive way, typically by way of desirable attributes relating to arts and entertainment, sports, political values, diplomacy, technology and innovation, or economic progress. It differs from hard power which is mostly wielded by military or economic force. Brand Finance—author of the Soft Power Index—defines the concept as “a nation’s ability to influence the preferences and behaviors of various actors in the international arena (states, corporations, communities, publics etc.) through attraction or persuasion rather than coercion.”

The concept has uses that extend beyond academic spheres. In the international relations environment, countries with full soft power arsenals (e.g. the United States) are able to more easily build alliances, attract external investment, shape global norms, boost exports, and engage in cultural diplomacy. For developing nations, this can contribute to much-needed economic opportunities, educational and technological exchange, and increased aid and development assistance. In other words, soft power matters.

In the case of Rwanda, many recent high-profile events point to the nation’s enhanced influence. In May 2024, the Africa CEO Forum took place in the capital city. Approximately 2,000 CEOS, heads of state, and business leaders gathered in Kigali to generate ideas and collaborate on the topic of “At the table or on the menu? A critical moment to shape a new future for Africa,” the year’s programmatic theme. This esteemed event—deemed the “Davos of Africa”—being held in Rwanda highlights the small nation’s capacity for hosting prestigious gatherings as well as its growing political and developmental stature.

Similarly, in June 2022 Rwanda held the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting for the first time in its history. Political leadership from 54 Commonwealth nations assembled in Kigali, devising solutions to issues in areas such as public health, the environment, and business and economics. Prince Charles of Wales and Duchess Camilla of Cornwall toured the city in the days preceding the summit, visiting key sites such as the Kigali Genocide Memorial, the Albertine Rift Conservation Society (ARCOS) agroforestry site, the Kigali Public Library, and a show at Kigali Fashion Week. This event was particularly significant in that it was the first visit to the nation by a member of the Royal Family. Prior to the 2022 gathering, the last African nation to host the CHOG was Uganda in 2007 under Yoweri Museveni.

Apart from business and political events, Rwanda aims to “advertise itself as one of Africa’s major destinations for international sports events” according to its sports minister.  The inaugural Basketball Africa League named the Kigali Arena an official host venue back in 2019, and the 73^rd FIFA congress took place in March 2023 at the Kigali Convention Center. Rwanda is also noted for its Tour du Rwanda which attracts cyclists from across the globe.

US-Rwanda Relations

The United States’ relations with Rwanda have ranged from relative disengagement to more purposeful cooperation. In the 1960s-1980s in the African post-independence period, US influence in Rwanda was limited as the East African nation was not a foreign policy priority. The containment of communism and the arms race against the Soviet Union consumed most of the US’ foreign policy resources during this time.  In Africa more largely, the decades following the wave of independence were marked by US experimentation with different strategies of engagement. President Nixon (1969-1974) introduced the concept of concentration countries, or selective engagement through a focus on key African countries that were deemed strategically important for the US Among these priority countries were Nigeria, Zaire, Ethiopia, and South Africa—largely due to their outsized political influence and economic potential at the time. President Ford’s tenure (1974-1977) was characterized by a continuation in this policy, plus support for anti-communist factions in the Angolan Civil War. President Carter (1981-1989) took a new approach through an emphasis on human rights. Involvement during this period aimed at helping improve living standards for the poorest of the poor, often through water well projects and local health initiatives. Notably, Rwanda was never a key priority in Africa under any of these administrations and thus US-Rwanda interactions primarily took place in the context of multilateral institutions and through minor developmental assistance programs.

A shift occurred in the 1990s as the US (and many others in the international community) faced severe criticisms for failing to intervene in the Rwandan genocide. Perhaps motivated by guilt, US leadership decided to approach the relationship more intentionally and offered humanitarian aid, development assistance, and support for justice mechanisms on Rwanda’s road to reconstruction and reconciliation. Engagement between the two countries increased again in the 2000s, particularly by way of HIV/AIDS education and PEPFAR, economic development, and through military training and support to assist with Rwanda’s international peacekeeping missions. Today, US-Rwanda relations continue to through partnership in areas such as health, education, agriculture, governance, regional security, and trade.

Authoritarianism and the Problem with Rwanda

The US’ bilateral partnership with Rwanda has both strengthened over time and grown to incorporate more strategic areas. As Rwanda increases in its regional and global influence, it is inevitable that the US will be more intentional about its engagements with the East African rising star. With that said, US leaders cannot be uncritical about this arrangement. President Paul Kagame—now able to remain in power until 2034 due to a constitutional revision—has his own shortcomings which must be scrutinized. A democracy in name only, manipulated elections every seven years consistently see incumbent Kagame win over 90% of the vote share. Already ruling for twenty years, he has claimed that he has no qualms about staying in power another two decades. Failing to be more openly critical about Kagame’s authoritarianism undermines US influence in the region.

As reported by the BBC, a prominent critic of President Kagame remarked that “Rwandans already live in a climate of fear, and [he] alleges that more than one minister has told him that they remain in government because they fear being assassinated if they leave.” Despite this, Kagame remains branded as the “West’s favorite autocrat.” Can the US truly trademark itself as the global defender of democracy while uncritically engaging with such blatant authoritarian leaders?

Another aspect of Rwanda’s rise which presents challenges to the larger region is that it may offer an enticing but dangerous alternative to the Western model of development. Rwanda’s model, although seemingly effective at face-value, prioritizes rapid economic growth over building sustainable democratic processes. It is unclear whether development driven by authoritarian control combined with a lack of democratic freedoms will create social unrest and other unforeseen challenges in the long run. Like China, these developmental “success stories” which neglect considerations for fundamental human rights run the risk of legitimizing authoritarian rule. In this way, Rwanda’s growing influence poses a threat to established democratic norms and must be approached with caution.

A Strategic Foreign Policy Strategy Toward Rwanda

 The US must be careful, thoughtful, and nuanced in its approach to Rwanda. Following are six recommendations on how the US can engage Kigali in a way that is mutually beneficial rather than deleterious.

1. Empower civil society and support an independent media.

Civil society is the backbone of any accountable polity, serving the important function of linking the state and the people. In undemocratic nations such as Rwanda, civil society becomes even more vital in protecting citizens from the encroachment of government power. Kagame has been criticized for introducing legislation that would impose strict regulations on non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and activists have often faced intimidation and harassment. Those Rwandese who seek refuge abroad do not even find solace, as they are often subjected to transnational repression tactics when they refuse to fall in line with governmental positions.  

To thwart these injustices and support this fundamental sector, the US should fund programs that strengthen the capacity of civil society organizations (CSOs). Providing training, resources, and platforms on which CSOs can operate and thrive could also be helpful. The US may offer legal assistance for unjustly accused and persecuted journalists and activists. For those in the media who have suffered limitations to their autonomy, the US can offer support through exchange programs wherein Rwandese journalists may have access to more open media environments, or provide grants and financial support to independent media outlets.

2. Support the strengthening of democratic institutions.

An undemocratic Rwanda has negative implications for today’s citizens, future Rwandese generations, and the wider EAC community. The strengthening of democratic institutions can serve to mitigate governmental repression and offer checks on executive power. The US can support the strengthening of democratic institutions through offering technical assistance and funding for bodies such as the National Electoral Commission and pro-democracy organizations.  Further, while Rwanda does have regular elections, they are neither free nor fair. The US can deploy electoral observers to offer independent reports on whether general elections are peaceful and credible. Studies show that the mere presence of external observers can have a positive effect by mitigating election-day fraud. Although imperfect, the US is seen as a global “leader” in democracy and the promotion of liberal values. I will note, however, that we must work to strengthen our democratic institutions at home in addition to supporting them abroad, lest we be viewed as hypocrites on the global stage.  

3. Make economic aid conditional.

Economic aid and support for developmental programs should be conditional. The US provided over $175 million USD in aid to Rwanda in fiscal year 2023, and approximately 40% of Rwanda’s national revenue is sourced from foreign donors. US programs such as Feed the Future, Prosper Africa, PEPFAR, and Power Africa are utilized to help expand economic opportunities, improve healthcare provisions, and enhance the educational system. The US has offered as high as nearly $270 million USD (2016) in financial assistance to the East African nation despite the government’s blatant human rights violations and encroachment on the liberal values we claim to endorse. My recommendation is that the US creates specific benchmarks for political and human rights, and when those benchmarks are not met, aid is withheld until compliance is met. This is essential in order to increase accountability of the Rwandan government and ensure that citizens are afforded the human rights and democratic provisions that they desire.

4. Emphasize strategic military cooperation.

Historically, the US has engaged in security cooperation with Rwanda through support to the Rwanda Defence Force, as well as programs to promote anti-corruption efforts and accountability with police and law enforcement. In the Integrated Country Strategy for Rwanda, Mission Goal #2 is to “Advance regional peace and security and the protection of US citizens” which demonstrates the high level of importance the US places on security in the region. The stakes are heightened in the present day, as there are concerns of a looming Rwanda-Congo war. Although Kagame denies direct involvement with rebel group M23, there has been documentation by independent groups of the Rwanda Defence Force offering support. Tensions have been especially heightened since 2022 due to M23’s resurgence and new offensives in North Kivu. The US must navigate this conflict strategically, strengthening peacekeeping efforts and stabilizing conflict-affected areas. Targeted sanctions could also be implemented to punish individuals or organizations in Rwanda who have supported rebel groups.  

5. Leverage multilateral forums.

The US may leverage multilateral platforms such as the UN as an avenue through which human rights concerns can be raised. Diplomatic pressure should be applied by UN member states, and the US can also support resolutions that promote good governance and democratic accountability in Rwanda. The US can also work with the African Union in a similar capacity in order to encourage Rwanda to adhere to human rights standards and fulfill its democratic commitments.

6. Plan for a post-Kagame Rwanda.

Long-time leader Paul Kagame has held office since 2000 and seen the country through turbulent times. However, despite the seeming popularity—supposedly winning over 99% of the vote in the 2024 election—there will be a day in which his tenure ends, either through the ballot box or his own decision to step down. In this way, the US and Rwanda’s other diplomatic partners must plan for a post-Kagame Rwanda. I would recommend strategic engagement with the youth, especially through initiatives such as the Young African Leaders Initiative. It is vital to inculcate pro-democracy and pro-human rights attitudes in the next generation of Rwandese and demonstrate the societal dividends that are achieved through an adherence to democratic principles. Through programs such as the Mandela Washington Fellowship, public diplomacy is an important strategy whereby the US can promote liberal values in a way that is coercive and convincing, leading by example. With this said, however, it is imperative that the US is in fact an example worth following. We must address our democratic shortcomings and demonstrate that our own democracy is strong and stable before we force our values on others. The US cannot be hypocritical. In the end, I truly believe that it is the youth that will lead Rwanda into a more prosperous future, and the US can play a major role in supporting and developing this demographic to reach their full potential.

Toward a Balanced Approach

In sum, Rwanda’s growing soft power and influence in Africa presents both significant challenges and important opportunities. Through a balanced foreign policy strategy, the US can thoughtfully navigate this bilateral relationship in a way that maintains peace and stability in the region, steers the nation into a more democratic direction, and offers a continued positive developmental trajectory. The “balance” comes in through respecting and leveraging Rwanda’s growing soft power for mutual benefit, while also acknowledging the shortcomings of its authoritarian leadership. Kagame should no longer be the benefactor of US aid without a critical evaluation of his [lack of] adherence to human rights norms.

If the US approaches this relationship more attentively, we can steer the East African star toward a more prosperous future in which the next generation of Rwandese can thrive under a government that is effective and accountable.

Image: US State Department