A nation must think before it acts.
Democracy and Terrorism
The United States wishes to use democracy in a double capacity, first to unsettle current enemies and second, through regime change, as a long-term inoculation against terrorism. Applied to terrorism in general and the Middle East in particular, however, democracy has many unexpected consequences:
Islamism, or the Use of Islam for Political Purposes
The group discussed Turkey as a case study. The current government, with its Islamic roots and emphasis, is quite remarkable in a country whose constitution is militantly secular and whose army has intervened periodically to keep it so. Its rise can be traced to the increased influence of the Eastern Anatolia region (rural, Muslim) and the arrival of Muslim “have-nots” versus the “Kemalist” western Anatolia (including Istanbul). Widespread popular disgust with the existing corrupt political parties played a big role, too, in the victory of the AKP (Justice and Development Party) in 2003.
Currently, Turkey’s direction is unclear, partly because the country is going in so many directions.
Iran
Iran’s role and power cast a gloomy shadow over the region. The rhetoric of its leadership, combined with its support for terrorism and its evident interest in facing down all of the powers on the nuclear issue, promises a major confrontation with the United States.
The U.S.- Israeli Relationship
The U.S.-Israeli alliance was strained by the Lebanon war, this time not because Israel (or the United States) acted at cross purposes but because Israel did not do an efficient job of dispatching Hezbollah. Hence, the United States might reevaluate the strategic value of Israel, expecting less.