A nation must think before it acts.
The G7, led by the United States in the Global North, and BRICS, led by China in the Global South, are each working diligently to control the rules-based international order. To better understand this competition, it is essential to understand these institutions’ origins, purpose, and current goals.
The G7 was founded in 1975 by advanced democratic industrialized economies to discuss pressing economic concerns, with the oil crisis of 1973 caused by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) being the catalyst. The G7 is not a formal institution like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or the European Union; it does not have a secretary general, a constitution, or permanent staff members. Each year, a nation assumes the presidency, with Italy currently holding the position, granting it the authority to set the annual policy agenda and organize the group’s summit, with any proposals requiring unanimous approval. The most recent G7 summit was held on June 13, 2024, in Apulia, Italy, where the agenda focused on promoting international security, furthering artificial intelligence (AI) partner cooperation, climate change initiatives, economic security, and supporting developing countries. The G7’s primary goal is to promote global peace and security while upholding the free and rules-based international order.
BRICS was initiated by Russia in 2009 to call for an increased role in global financial institutions as emerging economic nations. BRICS functions identically to the G7, a consensus-based body that requires unanimous agreements and an annual rotating leader, with Russia holding the presidency this year. The upcoming BRICS summit is scheduled for October 2024 in Kazan, Russia, with the agenda focused on three key areas: politics and security, the economy and finance, and cultural and humanitarian ties. BRICS’s current goal is to reshape the international order to allow nations to act independently without involvement or enforcement from Western countries.
BRICS is launching three strategic initiatives that aim to challenge the established international order: an AI governance framework, an independent economic system, and regional security coalitions.
Like many organizations, BRICS has recognized that AI is the next frontier in technology, with the potential to enhance productivity, safeguard national and domestic security interests, shape public discourse, and intensify competition. At the last BRICS summit in South Africa in August 2023, Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced the creation of an AI study group with the goal of “developing AI governance frameworks and standards with a broad-based consensus.” This group has been tasked with coordinating AI-related projects, fostering interdisciplinary research, and addressing AI technologies’ ethical, social, and economic implications. This group presents a great deal of risk to the international order, considering China’s own AI practices; the country constantly monitors and regulates its citizens through the social credit score system, attempts to generate deep fakes to produce propaganda, and influences the developments of international AI standards that favor state control over transparent governance.
One of BRICS’s primary objectives is to establish an independent payment system using member currencies to promote de-dollarization, thereby diminishing the impact of Western sanctions designed to uphold sovereignty, freedoms, and human rights. The first step of this process is the attempt to influence specific vital international markets to gain economic leverage. One example of this new strategy is BRICS’s involvement in the energy market, with the organization aiming to create an energy partnership between its members. With the recent inclusion of energy-rich nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, BRICS could achieve a level of influence in the global energy market comparable to that of OPEC, potentially altering the dynamics by controlling a significant portion of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Another critical market BRICS is attempting to influence is the agricultural sector, whose first objective is to create an independent grain trading system that was introduced by Russia. With BRICS members accounting for 42 percent of annual total global grain production, this initiative would increase the organization’s negotiating power in grain prices and combat sanctions by the United States and its G7 partners.
China, Russia, and Iran have been the most active members of the security partnership in BRICS, with many referring to this coalition as the new triple axis. These three countries have conducted annual joint military maritime exercises since 2018 to enhance regional security, foster multilateral cooperation, and signal to the G7 that BRICS is solidifying against Western military and political dominance. The most recent exercise occurred in March 2024 in the Gulf of Oman, a vital strait for oil shipments in the Middle East and the only maritime route from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea into the Persian Gulf. In this naval exercise, more than twenty warships were used. The exercises consisted of search and rescue training, special joint tactical operations, and aerial and maritime target practice. South Africa, Oman, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan also attended as observer countries.
Three policy recommendations are offered to counter these BRICS initiatives to prevent them from undermining the established international order.
The first recommendation involves implementing substantial economic trade agreements designed to disincentivize actions that undermine the established economic order. This can be accomplished by offering BRICS members an economic trade agreement that provides substantial financial incentives to encourage closer ties with the United States and its G7 allies, thereby reducing the members’ alignment with Russia’s and China’s objectives. South Africa is particularly well-suited for such an agreement, given its neutral stance on BRICS decisions and Africa’s growing importance as the new frontier of economic interest and competition among major powers. The existing African Growth and Opportunity Act between the United States and Africa could be expanded into a formal trade agreement, further strengthening political and economic ties with the West. While South Africa is a prime candidate, similar agreements could be pursued with other BRICS members such as India or Egypt that may be receptive to increased economic engagement.
The second policy recommendation is to focus on creating a Western-led AI governance framework that would be globally accepted. This is a crucial step that must be taken before China and BRICS succeed at this task. The development of this framework has been a continuous endeavor since the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, in May 2023, where Prime Minister Fumio Kishida initiated the Hiroshima AI Process. This process aims to build a guidebook that safeguards international norms, serving as the foundation of a G7 AI governance framework. The first tangible result of this effort was the Hiroshima AI Process Comprehensive Policy Framework, established in December 2023. Despite these significant accomplishments, this framework has yet to connect with the global community. The next crucial step is to ensure the interoperability of rules in advanced AI systems, enabling the G7 to preserve the rule of law, human rights, and democracy. This would be achieved through the implementation of risk management, governance guidelines, ethical considerations, terminology, and definitional interoperability.
The third policy recommendation emphasizes the importance of deepening military cooperation to address regional security concerns. Strengthening security partnerships with China’s key military allies is essential for the G7 to weaken their joint operational capabilities. A strategic focus should be placed on deepening our military cooperation with India, which, as of 2024, ranks as the fourth most powerful military in the world, following the United States, Russia, and China. The United States already collaborates with India through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue alongside Japan and Australia. Moreover, India’s complex relationship with China, marked by a 2020 border dispute resulting in casualties on both sides, underscores the need for closer military ties. To bolster India’s operational capabilities, the G7 and the United States should initiate joint military exercises tailored to India’s specific needs, such as mountain warfare training and specialized equipment to excel at repelling any future incidents at their borders. This deepened military cooperation would not only enhance India’s defense readiness but also contribute significantly to regional security and stability. While expanding security partnerships with other BRICS members like Saudi Arabia or Brazil could be beneficial, an improved relationship with India through joint military exercises would be particularly effective in counterbalancing the military influence of Russia and China.
The BRICS coalition under China’s and Russia’s leadership poses a formidable challenge to the US-led G7’s rules-based international order. By establishing an independent economic system, promoting an AI governance framework that could potentially undermine established global norms, and forging military coalitions, BRICS seeks to alter the existing global power structure. To counter this threat, the United States and its allies must take decisive actions, including forming strategic trade agreements, developing a globally accepted AI governance framework, and strengthening security partnerships with key BRICS members. Failure to do so could result in diminished US influence and the destabilization of the international order that has sustained global peace.
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