As Ukraine entered its fourth year of Russia’s full-scale war, it was geopolitics, not the war itself, that dominated headlines, as Kyiv’s relationship with new U.S. President Donald Trump nosedived over a proposed minerals deal.

In the meantime though, the battlefield continues to rage on multiple fronts, with daily Russian assaults continuing through a period of consistent sub-zero temperatures across eastern Ukraine.

The most intense fighting continues to be in southern Donetsk Oblast, where, although Russian territorial gains have slowed to a halt outside the key city of Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s defense of the area around Kurakhove buckled over the first months of 2025.

Going forward, many unpredictable factors hang over the next year of the war. Ukraine is trying to solidify its defense with new reforms, Russia faces questions over its ability to sustain its current rate of attacks and losses, while looming largest is the future of U.S. aid.

To reflect on the key conclusions of the third year of the full-scale war and what to look out for in the fourth, the Kyiv Independent sat down with the U.S.-based military analyst and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute Rob Lee during a working visit to Kyiv.

Continue reading on the Kyiv Independent.