China has been a major investor and trade partner in Central Asia for some twenty-five years. For the first half of those years, Beijing was focused on oil and natural gas pipelines and roads and railways to bring energy resources and raw materials from Central Asia to China, spending tens of billions of dollars on these projects. When they were completed, Chinese investment in Central Asia tapered off. China remained a leading trade partner and investor for the Central Asian states but most of the projects in which China participated were worth millions, not billions of dollars. In the last two years, China launched a new investment offensive in Central Asia that reaches into a variety of sectors. These are the sorts of projects that do not make headlines but they represent billions of dollars in fresh investment and loans. The aim is not so much supplying goods and materials to China, though there are some projects that do this, as it is providing Chinese companies new opportunities to expand. The Central Asian states are benefitting from these projects, but at the same time, Chinese influence in the region will significantly increase and will be especially important in the coming years.

The Era of Mega Projects

China’s first large project in Central Asia was the construction of an oil pipeline capable of carrying 10 million tons of oil annually running some 1,380 miles from the oil fields of western Kazakhstan to western China. The agreement was signed in 1997, and the pipeline became fully functional in 2009. In 2006, China signed an agreement with Turkmenistan for construction of a network of four pipelines (Central Asia to China) to carry a combined 85 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas more than 1,000 miles from Turkmenistan, through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (each can supply up to ten bcm of their gas), to China. The first of these pipelines, Line A, started operation at the end of 2009. Chinese companies participated in the construction and repair of new roads and railway lines to better connect Central Asia to China. Some of these roads and railways would later become part of the Belt and Road initiative and give China new routes to Europe, Afghanistan, Iran, and the Middle East.

China poured billions of dollars into these mega projects and by the end of 2010 most of the pipelines, roads, and railways were operational. Only two large projects remain for China in Central Asia. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is an idea dating back to the 1990s. Construction is finally expected to start on the railway in 2025. There is also the last line of the pipeline network coming from Turkmenistan, which would be the biggest line (capacity thirty bcm) and would go via Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan to China.

After the mega projects were completed, Chinese investment went toward multimillion-dollar projects, such as repair and modernization of the Bishkek Thermal Power Plant and construction of the Dushanbe Thermal Power Plant, which cost, respectively, $386 million and $349 million. Chinese investment into Central Asia was consistent but tempered.

When the Kremlin launched its mass invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, there was speculation China might use the opportunity of Moscow’s diverted attention to strengthen Beijing’s influence in Central Asia. For more than a year after the start of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine, China made no unusual moves in Central Asia, but in late 2023 it laid the groundwork for a campaign of investment that stretched across most of Central Asia and reached into a variety of sectors in 2024.

Renewable Energy

Central Asia has opened its doors to renewable energy. Despite the region’s significant oil and gas reserves, coal remains the major fuel for energy production in every Central Asian state except Turkmenistan. Nearly all the big cities in Central Asia are experiencing air pollution problems, which have been especially acute in Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have enormous hydropower potential, but reduced precipitation in recent years is raising questions about the future of hydropower in Central Asia.

The reduction in rainfall is linked with climate change. The effects of climate change are already strongly felt in Central Asia and seen not only in diminishing precipitation, but also record high temperatures in summer and accompanying glacier melt in Central Asia’s eastern mountains. In late 2023, President of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences Kanat Abdrakhmatov said studies show that since 1991, the average number of days of winter in the country has decreased from 95 to 71 and the average number of summer days has increased from 145 to 154.

However, Central Asia already has an abundance of sunny days, and the lengthening warm seasons make the region even more suitable to harness solar power. The flat, open expanses of the western half of Central Asia and all of northern Kazakhstan offer excellent potential for wind farms.

Saudi company ACWA and Emirati Masdar are already engaged in developing solar and wind power potential in Central Asia. China was involved in renewable energy projects in Central Asia prior to 2023. In 2021, China Power International completed the construction of a wind farm with a capacity of 100 megawatts (MW) in Kazakhstan’s southern Zhambyl Province and was already in talks in April 2022 to build a 1000 MW solar power plant in Kyrgyzstan’s northeastern Issyk-Kul Province.

In March 2023, Uzbekistan signed a deal with Chinese company Huadian Xinjiang for the construction of solar power plants in Uzbekistan’s Navoi and Ferghana provinces, and in June that year, ACWA brought in China Energy International as the main contractor for a 400 MW solar plant ACWA was building in Tashkent Province.

In 2024, the presence of Chinese companies involved in building solar power plants in Central Asia was highly visible.

During a visit to China by Uzbekistan’s Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov in February 2024, deals were signed with Energy China to construct solar power stations in Uzbekistan’s Kashkadarya, Bukhara, and Samarkand provinces. The solar plants will generate a combined 2,000 MW and Energy China pledged to invest $2 billion in the projects.

In April 2024, work started on a 400 MW solar plant in Kyrgyzstan’s city of Balykchy, located on the shore of the country’s massive Issyk-Kul lake. A Chinese consortium was providing $400 million for the plant’s construction. Also in April, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev participated in a construction launch ceremony of a 500 MW solar power plant in the Jizzakh Province that China Poly Group and China Electric are building at a cost of $350 million.

In May, China’s Eging PV Technology signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Tajikistan’s Ministry of Economic Development and Trade to build a 200 MW solar plant in Tajikistan’s Panj Free Economic Zone at a cost of some $150 million. That same month, Tajikistan’s Minister of Economic Development and Trade confirmed the China Pingmei Shenma Holding Group would build two solar power stations in the southern Khatlon region, and there were talks between Tajik officials and representatives of China’s State Investment Group on construction of a solar power station in Sughd. The Datang Corporation signed the deal in July to build a 500 MW solar plant in Sughd and a factory to produce solar panels in Tajikistan’s northern Tashkent region.

China’s Datang Corporation signed a contract in May to build a 263 MW solar power station in Uzbekistan’s Tashkent Province and invest $150 million in the project. At the end of November, China’s Sinoma EC International signed a deal to build a solar power plant with 300 MW capacity and a seventy-five MW storage facility in Uzbekistan’s Navoi Province.

China Electric Equipment Group signed a deal with Uzbekistan in April 2025 to construct a solar power plant with 500 MW in the Farish district of Jizzakh Province.

Chinese wind power companies have also been active in Central Asia.

At the Astana International Forum June 2023, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry reached an agreement with China Power International to build another wind farm in Zhambyl, much larger than the one put into operation in the province in 2021. The new wind farm would generate 1000 MW.

During Mirziyoyev’s visit to China in January 2024, one of the agreements signed was for Chinese company SANY Renewable Energy Co. to build a $2.2 billion wind farm with a capacity of 1000 MW in Uzbekistan’s western Karakalpakstan Republic. Another signed agreement was for China’s Universal Energy to invest $500 million to build two wind power plants, one in Samarkand Province and the other in Jizzakh Province, each with 250 MW capacity.

In May, Chinese company Liaoning Lide announced it would build several wind farms in northern Tajikistan’s Sughd region, but did not provide details on electricity generation capacity or cost of the project.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan in early July 2024 for a state visit and to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. During Xi’s time in Kazakhstan, SANY Renewable Energy signed an agreement to construct a factory in Kazakhstan that would produce blades, gondolas, and towers for wind farms. The project was reportedly worth $114 million. Also signed during Xi’s trip was a deal for the China National Petroleum Corporation to help build 400 MW wind farm at one of the company’s sites in Kazakhstan.

In August, Mirziyoyev attended the launch of construction of the 1000 MW wind farm in Karakalpakstan by SANY Renewable Energy and announced there would be ten large wind farms by 2030. In April 2025, Uzbekistan signed an agreement with SANY to construct another wind farm in Karakalpakstan with a capacity of 1000 MW. Also in August 2024, a delegation from Chinese company Longyuan Power Group visited Uzbekistan’s eastern Ferghana Province. The company said it would invest in wind and solar projects in the province.

In October, China Energy International Group’s subsidiary China Energy Overseas Investment announced it would build a 500 MW wind farm in central Kazakhstan’s Karaganda Province and a solar power plant with a capacity of 300 MW in the southern Turkestan Province. At about the same time, China Power International signed an agreement to build a 1000 MW wind farm and energy storage facility in Zhambyl Province, and Power China Resources reached a deal to build an 810 MW wind and hydropower plant in Almaty Province.

In December, construction started on a $700 million, 600 MW wind power plant in Uzbekistan’s Bukhara Province that is backed by Chinese investors.

In January 2025, China’s Envision Energy and Kazakh company Kazakhstanskiye Kommunalniye Sistemy started construction of a factory that will produce wind generators at the Khorgos dry port on the two countries’ border.

Sinoma, in June 2025, pledged to invest $25.2 million in a wind turbine factory in Uzbekistan’s Jizzakh Province. The project is expected to be completed in seven months.

Chinese companies are also constructing biomass energy plants in Central Asia, particularly in Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change signed a memorandum in August 2024 with Chengdu Environment Investment Group for a biomass plant. In November, Mirziyoyev announced companies from China and the United Arab Emirates would build biomass plants in eleven provinces that would process some 4.7 million tons of waste and produce 2.1 billion kWh annually (Uzbekistan’s electricity production for 2024 was some 81.5 billion kWh). At that time, Uzbek media reported on an agreement the Ecology Ministry signed with China CAMC Engineering for construction of two more biomass plants: one in Tashkent and one in Andijan, each costing $350 million.

China Everbright Group is set to build two plants in Namangan and Ferghana provinces, each costing $283 million with the ability to produce a combined 455 million kWh. Chengdu Environment Investment Group will construct a biomass plant in Jizzakh Province, and Shanghai SUS Environment will construct two plants: one in Samarkand Province, the other in Kashkadarya Province, each at a cost of $310 million and with the capacity to generate 630 million kWh. Shanghai SUS Environment also signed a contract with Kazakhstan to build a biomass plant in Almaty that will be able to incinerate some 2,000 tons of waste to generate up to sixty MW of electricity annually. The Chinese company plans to invest $270 million in construction of the Kazakh plant.

Agriculture

Chinese companies have also shown increased interest in Central Asia’s agricultural sector, particularly in Kazakhstan.

In June 2024, China’s CITIC Construction announced plans to build a deep grain processing plant in Almaty Province at a cost of some $1 billion. Deep grain processing extracts “food and chemical components that can be used as a standalone product or further processed to produce new consumer products.” One report explained, “more than 260 different high-value-added products, such as bioethanol, gluten, and animal feed, can be derived from processed grain.” The Almaty plant would produce fructose syrup, crystalline fructose, allulose, crystalline dextrose, sodium gluconate, gluten, and feed.

CITIC is also working with Kazakh companies Meat Processing and Service, Agro Silk Way, and Astana Agro Product to establish a “farming hub” for livestock and meat processing. A report in July 2024 said Beijing Capital Agro plans to invest more than $600 million in the project. Some 600 farms in Kazakhstan would be involved and the project would create about 3,500 jobs.

Kazakh agricultural producers met at the end of November with representatives from forty of China’s leading agricultural enterprises. Ten deals worth $1 billion were signed, including one for Atlas.kz to sell China $100 million of poultry products annually.

Kazakh Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov announced new grain agreements with China. Saparov said, “Last year, the volume of grain supplies to China increased 5.5 times and reached 1.4 million tons,” and that would soon increase to 2 million tons.

A few weeks later, a delegation from Dalian Hesheng Group Co visited Kazakhstan and sealed a contract to build a plant in Aqmola for deep processing of wheat. The plant will produce 1 million tons of products initially, ramping up eventually to 3 million tons, and create some 2,000 jobs. The estimated cost of construction is $1.8 billion.

In April 2025, work started on a corn processing plant in Kazakhstan’s southern Zhambyl Province. Chinese company Shengtai Biotech Co. is building the plant at a cost of just over $1 billion. The plant’s initial production will be 500,000 to 1 million tons and when completed will process 3 million tons annually. About 6,000 jobs will be created during the construction phase and provide work for some 1,500 people once the plant is operational.

At the end of November 2023, Mirziyoyev warned about looming problems with water and announced a water conservation program that included repairing and reconcreting more than 2,000 thousand miles of the country’s irrigation canals.

At the end of November 2024, Mirziyoyev signed a resolution on accepting a loan from China’s Export-Import Bank to fund $220 million in repairs to irrigation canals in Bukhara, Namangan, Surhandarya, and Kashkadarya provinces. Chinese companies CITIC Construction Co Ltd. and SAMS Engineering Co. are participating in the project.

Kazakh officials met with representatives from China Civil Engineering and Construction Corporation in July 2024 to discuss reconstruction and improvements of the irrigation canal network in Zhambyl Province.

Officials from Uzbekistan’s Agriculture Ministry met with representatives of Chinese companies Wellhope and Qinghai Jiangheyuan Investment Group in March 2025 to discuss cooperation in livestock breeding and fruit and vegetable processing.

China’s Xinguang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co Ltd signed a deal in August 2024 to help develop Uzbekistan’s poultry industry “export poultry meat to foreign markets, including China.”

Additionally, Uzbekistan and China reached a deal in March this year to build an agricultural machinery factory at an, as yet, undisclosed location in Uzbekistan. The project will cost $10 million to realize.

During Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov’s visit to China in February 2025, a deal was signed for Chinese company Hebei Bai Dou Jia to increase its investment in the construction of a fertilizer plant in Kyrgyzstan from the original $260 million signed in May 2023 to $410 million. In March 2025, China’s Quanyibao donated agricultural equipment for rain-making and pest control to Kyrgyzstan worth $1.12 million.

Other Investment Projects

Chinese companies are also engaged in other infrastructure projects. The Xinxing Group is looking into building a pipe plant to produce materials for water supply networks in Kazakhstan, TBEA is building or modernizing ten electric substations and power lines in Almaty Province, and Chinese companies Yunnan Construction and Investment General Contracting are helping Kazakhstan complete the long-delayed Light Rail Transit project in Astana, the capital.

During Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov’s visit to China in November 2024, agreements were signed with China’s CAMC Engineering for construction of a soda ash producing factory, with Tianjin Cement Industry Design and Research Institute for a chemical complex, and with Yunnan Industrial Explosive Group for explosive-producing factories.

During the May 2024 visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Tajikistan, a deal was signed for China to help modernize the TALCO aluminum plant in the western Tajik town of Tursunzade. Few details were provided about the agreement, but the TALCO plant is one of Tajikistan’s most important enterprises.

Uzbekistan is building several new plants and factories with Chinese help. Starting in May 2024, Huigong Hebei Machinery Group Co. began construction of a plant to make spare parts for dump trucks in Tashkent Province. In July, Shiyan Zhenke Industrial Technology reached an agreement with officials in Uzbekistan’s eastern Ferghana Province to build a $40 million plant for production of “special vehicles,” and Da Fu started operations at a metal structures plant in Tashkent.

In August, Shangdong Aipurui Steel Plate Co began construction of a $120 million metallurgical plant in Ferghana Province, and in September, Ferghana Governor Khayrullo Bozorov announced Xinjiang Bai Yi Da Construction Investment would build a factory for making copper wire. In November, China Baoli Technologies Holdings Limited started construction of a non-ferrous metal plant in Andijan Province. The project is expected to cost $200 million.

Mutually Beneficial, but Advantage to China

Like all companies, Chinese companies are looking for markets, and Central Asia currently presents a wide range of possibilities. The Central Asian states are looking to build and develop energy sources, plants and factories, agricultural enterprises, and provide jobs for their growing populations. To accomplish these goals Central Asia needs financing, and China is one of only a few countries with the ability and interest to help.

China not only further diversifies its supply chain but boosts potential from an adjacent region. Given China’s ambitions to take Taiwan and the possibility that such an action could lead to other countries imposing maritime blockades on goods headed to China, development of agriculture and industry in neighboring Central Asia serves China’s purposes as well as those of Central Asia.

The costs of some of the projects listed here were not mentioned in reports, but for those where the cost was included, the total amounts to more than $14 billion.

It is worth noting that most of the projects are in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the two largest Central Asian countries, but also the two that are most capable of repaying China. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are already deeply in debt to China and neither country is likely to be able pay off Chinese loans possibly for decades, a fact of which Chinese officials and businesses are well aware.

Even in the cases of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Chinese loans and investments being made will put them, at least temporarily, deeper in debt to China, both financially and politically. This will hang over deals Central Asian states will be making in the next few years.

Central Asia has an abundance of critical minerals that are essential “for economic vitality and national security.” All the Central Asian states, with the exception of Turkmenistan, have publicized the materials available in their countries and indicated they are looking for foreign investment and know-how in extracting and processing these materials for sale on world markets.

China is already involved in several mining projects in Central Asia and has indicated it is interested in developing the region’s critical minerals industry. Chinese companies will be among the bidders for the critical mineral projects in Central Asia, and when it comes time to award those contracts, the Central Asian states will remember which country helped build their factory for fertilizer production, or spare parts for dump trucks, or deep grain processing plants.

Image credit: A man rides a horse near a wind power plant in the Almaty region, Kazakhstan, February 6, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev