A nation must think before it acts.
Although national security has not been a major component of the election campaign so far, it will undoubtedly become a critical element of comparison between the two contenders as the campaign heats up this summer. President Obama and presumed Republican Party candidate Mitt Romney have laid out stark alternatives in terms of strategic priorities, defense investment levels, American involvement in global affairs, and in our continued role in Afghanistan.
The President is shifting from stabilizing the recession to more strategic aspects of the Nation’s economic security. His national security strategy calls for a strategy of renewal in America’s infrastructure and economic foundation. He has stated that he believes the time has come to rebalance our strategic budget outlays from protracted foreign adventures to “nation building at home.”[1] There is a clear logic here to focus on reviving the globe’s most dynamic economy. This is central to our global position and influence. As Brookings scholar Michael O’Hanlon has stressed in testimony, “No great power has remained great while its economy eroded.”[2]
Mr. Obama and his defense team have re-scoped the strategic guidance for the armed forces. As part of this strategic rebalancing, the President has developed a drawdown of the Pentagon’s planned spending by $487 billion by the end of the decade. Moreover, the Administration has made it clear that the conflict in Afghanistan is considered a high cost/low payoff drain on the Treasury. The impact it has had on our military with repetitive deployments for ground forces and airframes is also a concern. The President has not yet engineered an equal contribution to strategic renewal from the rest of the federal government bureaucracy, although General Services Administration’s Las Vegas “training conference” scandal may accelerate that.
Moreover, the Nation has yet to face up to the fact that its appetite for “entitlements” and government programs exceeds its willingness to pay for them. This is all compounded by the voracious increase in health care costs, which when combined with the demographic changes of our population, are simply not sustainable. One economist has noted that the average taxpayer is getting several times more out of Medicare than is being invested.[3]
Mr. Romney’s platform stands in stark relief to the President’s in several areas. Instead of withdrawing from Afghanistan and husbanding U.S. power, Mr. Romney wants to assure success and will rely on the inputs of the field commanders. Instead of reducing defense spending by nearly half a trillion dollars, the assumed challenger to the current Administration wants to increase defense spending, perhaps to a fixed rate of 4 percent of GDP that raises the defense budget to roughly $600 billion a year. In rough terms, this could be an increase of at least $500 billion dollars by 2020.
Mr. Romney stated that the policies of his Administration would be guided “by one overwhelming conviction and passion: that this century must be an American Century.” The United States would continue to hold its leadership role in the world and military supremacy. “In an American Century, America has the strongest economy and the strongest military.” This is not simply a reflexive desire to stay on top, but a conviction that this policy generates a more stable and secure world for ourselves and partners. “Without American leadership, without clarity of American purpose and resolve,” Mr. Romney stated in his most noted foreign policy speech, “the world becomes a far more dangerous place, and liberty and prosperity would surely be among the first casualties.”
He promised not to surrender America’s role or place in the world, and to reverse President Obama’s “massive defense cuts.” He found no efficiency in unpreparedness and absorbing risk. “Time and again,” he stated, “we have seen that attempts to balance the budget by weakening our military only lead to a far higher price, not only in treasure, but in blood.” ^
Mr. Romney has also signaled that he would substantially invest in naval shipbuilding which is presently in decline to buttress the Navy’s dwindling warship inventory.[5] It was heartening to hear a candidate recognize the critical importance of seapower to America’s strength. The challenger appears more willing to tackle the plethora of federal goodies and programs that taxpayers and special interest groups have come to expect from Washington. He is also willing to publicly challenge our non-discretionary “entitlements” system. Mr. Romney’s endorsement of the Paul Ryan budget proposal, which focused on tax reform and major government program cuts, is further evidence of the distinctive options being offered to the electorate this time around. The Ryan budget proposal restored almost half of the Administration’s planned military cuts.[6]
To address the distinction between the candidates and their positions, I will present a number of facts and issues in a dialectic argument in the remainder of this E-Note:
THESIS. America has an enormous lead in all forms of national power and can afford to reduce its guard in order to focus on renewing its economic prosperity.
ANTITHESIS. America faces a perfect storm of increased challenges to its interests and values, and should preserve its preponderance of power in the face of these threats.
Several years ago, I tried to answer the proverbial “how much is enough?” for defense spending, and thought that the Cold War average of $464 billion (in constant FY 2009 dollars) was adequate (or about $484 in today’s FY12). This would have been a substantial reduction for defense. However, subsequent studies from the Defense Business Board proved that this level did not sufficiently account for personnel benefits, especially the dramatic increase in health care costs. To account for these, at least another $30 billion would have to be added.[14] Even holding the Pentagon’s annual budget to $500B a year would pressurize spending for new challenges in space, cyber security, homeland defense, and special operations.
Thus, I have readjusted my estimates and accounted for inflation since my original calculations. Something above the $500 billion (in FY 12 constant dollars) range appears warranted unless you have a dramatically different strategy and a higher risk tolerance.
My reassessment finds that the defense cuts the President has engineered with his Defense team are doable and prudent. Anything much higher than the planned nearly half a trillion dollars of reductions brings about the need to craft a less engaged strategy that generates more risk and encourages others to fill power vacuums. Other Washington think tanks and scholars have come to the same conclusion.[15] More cuts may be reasonable under certain assumptions and if our allies continue to stand with us. But they should not be considered risk free. I would not be sanguine about cutting Defense by a trillion dollars as outlined in the contrived sequestration plan or by some scholars.[16]
The new defense guidance admits that we’ve historically been pretty poor at predicting the future. [17] Accordingly, the Pentagon’s planners are trying to hedge and mitigate risks where possible. I think they’ve done a good job of balancing ends and means. But they cannot eliminate risk and our new, leaner Pentagon will not be able to put the finger in every dike, even with contributions from our allies and friends, or from advanced technologies. We should not create “strategies for heroes” or a delusion that tomorrow’s Soldiers, Sailors, Marines and Airmen pay for with their lives.
Mr. Romney’s plans to increase defense spending does a lot to reduce security risks, and the increase in naval shipbuilding makes particular strategic sense. But there is a social dimension to strategy, and privileging the Pentagon with extra funding while our citizenry makes all the sacrifices and while we continue to wallow in debt could worsen the social contract and is considered politically unsustainable.
On the flip side, others are more comfortable with our current standing, and think that retrenchment is warranted. Some believe that reducing our forward presence and global posture will actually help stabilize flashpoints and crisis areas, and push reluctant allies to invest more in their own defense. Quite the opposite is more likely, and the purpose of U.S. military posture is not to mollify potential aggressors or elongate response times for U.S. policymakers. We can reduce forward deployed forces in Europe, but other withdrawals will generate flashpoints not reduce them. Nor is “soft power” and inexpensive diplomacy and development assistance a good tradeoff. The efficacy of soft power against China, North Korea and Iran has not been rigorously tested.
Arguments for more cuts are looking at today’s current posture rather than future challenges. These recommendations are more likely to embolden challengers and increase risks. They ignore America’s overseas interests and commitments, reducing deterrence against aggressors, and do little to reassure partners and allies. Nor do they resolve what the current Chairman calls our “security paradox,” a world with fewer threats but with greater horizontal and vertical proliferation of advanced lethal means to small states and non-state actors.[18]
These analysts are correct about our current position and the need to invest in diplomacy and development, but they deflect attention from the real domestic fiscal problem. Spending on our major three entitlement programs already consumes more than $2 trillion in 2012 or 50 percent of the federal budget. These mandatory programs, as enacted, will cost just over $3 trillion by FY19 and increase our national publicly held debt to $19.5 trillion, well over 100 percent of GDP. Interest payments on the burgeoning national debt, a mandatory expense, will reach $578B in FY19, potentially equaling defense spending.[19]
The Defense Department budget is not the central problem of our poor economic state. Nor is that budget big enough to provide the solution to the rapidly cresting federal debt tsunami. Our problems are a function of past poor discipline, demographics and health care trends. We cannot do much about the past, but health care which consumes nearly one sixth of our economy and half of federal expenditures. This presents options. As I noted in Orbis back in 2009, “the government’s focus should be reducing the insolvency in our mis-titled “mandatory” or “entitlements” programs. They remain the greatest threat to our future security.”[20]
But for political purposes, and for long-term sustainable commitment from the American people, DOD is going to be part of the solution. But it should only be a small part of an overarching grand bargain, which neither contender has yet framed. The onus is on the Presidential candidates to ensure that they offer concrete options that preserve our security interests, rebuild America’s economic foundation, maintain an adequate safety net for the less fortunate, and ensure we don’t handcuff future generations. We cannot borrow our way out of the problem. Nor should we shamelessly pass it on to our children.
Clearly some risk will have to be accepted since we can no longer afford to spend our way out of every problem. As former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates noted before he left office, “The United States cannot expect to eliminate national security risks through higher defense budgets, to do everything and buy everything. The Department of Defense must set priorities and consider inescapable tradeoffs and opportunity costs.”[21] The same can be said with greater urgency about the rest of government, particularly medical costs.
Admiral Mike Mullen, USN, the recently retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, once famously quipped that our debt was the greatest threat to our national security. He was almost correct, but we can handle our current debt. It is the impending mountain of new debt that will produce a crisis. We have choices about what role we want to play in world affairs, the means needed to fulfill that role, and how we pay for those means without borrowing trillions from foreign bankers. We should not continue to hide these choices or the tradeoffs in the coming debates. If that happens, the fault will be ours. I think the greatest threat to our national security is not the debt, nor a dysfunctional political process, but our failure to be honest with ourselves.
The coming election is a perfect opportunity to pose serious questions to the country. Will our contenders rise to the challenge or stick to banal talking points?
The choice is fairly simple. Retrench and retreat, or continue to lead and rebuild without degrading our defense? Do we want a very costly government that exists largely to redistribute income and benefits? Do we want to move forward together and reclaim the American dream of security and prosperity for subsequent generations or wallow in debt, doubt and decline? The choice is ours and we should demand that our Presidential aspirants frame options so that this election frames exactly what path each leader wants as a mandate.
You may forward this email as you like provided that you send it in its entirety, attribute it to the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and include our web address (www.fpri.org). If you post it on a mailing list, please contact FPRI with the name, location, purpose, and number of recipients of the mailing list.
If you receive this as a forward and would like to be placed directly on our mailing lists, send email to FPRI@fpri.org. Include your name, address, and affiliation. For further information, contact Eli Gilman at (215) 732-3774 ext. 255.