A nation must think before it acts.
Last week, while testifying before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, William Barr, the Attorney General of the United States, the nation’s chief law enforcement officer, and the executive official who sits at the apex of the national security pyramid in terms of approving applications for foreign intelligence electronic surveillance in the United States, said he would scrutinize the FBI’s investigation of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, including whether “‘spying’ conducted by American intelligence agencies on the campaign’s associates had been properly carried out.”
Saying that “spying on a political campaign is a big deal,” Barr promised to look into “the genesis and the conduct” of the FBI inquiry. “I think spying did occur,” Mr. Barr said. “The question is whether it was adequately predicated. And I’m not suggesting that it wasn’t adequately predicated. But I need to explore that.”[1] Not surprisingly, Barr’s biggest advocate in encouraging such “exploration” appears to be his boss, the President of the United States who, within hours, one-upped Barr by insisting that “[t]here was absolutely spying into my campaign … I’ll go a step further, It was my opinion it was illegal spying unprecedented spying, and something that should never be allowed to happen in our country again.”[2]
Yes, government spying on a political campaign is a “big deal;” so, one might think that someone as experienced as Barr with the fractious scene and nuanced speech of Washington politics might have chosen his words a bit more carefully. After all, the Attorney General’s continued opacity on the content of the Mueller Report and how much of that report anyone other than his inner circle at the Department of Justice might see tends to undermine, at least for now, his every statement on any of the events regarding Russian interference in the 2016 election. While Barr sought to mitigate the broader implications of his contention of “spying” by saying that he was not saying “improper surveillance occurred,” there was certainly no indication that his decision to lob this verbal accusation was intended to convey a belief that any and all surveillance employed was proper.
Given Barr’s apparent indifference towards casting aspersions at the FBI and, by implication given the record-to-date of this administration’s treatment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, that Community as a whole, it seems especially prudent to provide an abbreviated recounting of what is known about the FBI counterintelligence investigation that focused, at least in part, on contacts between the Trump campaign and the Russians. More or less chronologically, these are the most salient revelations that have been reported:[3]
Trump was “briefed and warned” at the session about potential espionage threats from Russia, two former law enforcement officials familiar with the sessions told NBC News. A source close to the White House has said their position is that Trump was unaware of the contacts between his campaign and Russians. However, according to public reports, by the time of the warning in late July or August 2016, at least seven Trump campaign officials had been in contact with Russians or people linked to Russia. There is no public evidence that the campaign reported any of that to the FBI.[5]
A full appreciation for the import of this factual recounting is best achieved by assessing it in conjunction with the findings of the U.S. Intelligence Community as reflected in the Intelligence Community Assessment[7] of Russian election interference issued by the Director of National Intelligence in January 2017.[8] Again, without repeating the ICA’s content at length, its key judgments were:
Measured against this imposing background of facts and intelligence analysis, and assuming that his extemporaneous remarks purportedly embodied some level of prior reflection, it is difficult to understand, and disturbing to consider, what source(s) of information the Attorney General thought warranted such an incendiary judgment about the conduct of this particular counterintelligence investigation.
The Carter Page FISA applications seem to be the most obvious target of Barr’s impromptu references to “spying” and “surveillance.”[10] This is highly unfortunate for, aside from a certain coterie of conservative lawyers and Fox News zealots, those applications have been dissected by many legal scholars and have been widely accepted as properly approved by the FISC.[11] Nonetheless, Barr’s ill-considered comments are certain to reopen debate on the most controversial element of those Carter Page FISA applications: the infamous “Steele Dossier.” The cabal of conspiracy theorists, energized by their beloved Fox News pundits, will now surely insist that their demonization of that Dossier has found new support from the country’s top law enforcement officer. In doing so, they will undoubtedly continue to misdirect their attention, and the attention of all those willing to be misled, to the raunchiest elements of that Dossier rather than focusing on the particular parts of the Dossier that address the activities of Carter Page—the only parts relevant to the FISC’s evaluation of whether there were sufficient facts upon which to find probable cause to approve the surveillance of Page.
As almost anyone with a passing interest in the counterintelligence investigation into Russian election interference now knows, Christopher Steele was a former MI-6 agent working as a private investigator whose services, at the time the Dossier was compiled, had been retained by Fusion GPS to seek out information for the Clinton campaign that could be used to discredit the Trump campaign, an initiative begun in the 2016 primary season by Republicans opposed to a Trump candidacy.[12] Steele’s efforts are recorded in a series of 17 memoranda (collectively, the “Dossier”), each titled as a “Company Intelligence Report” and serialized as “2016/xxx.”
Steele appears as “Source #1” in the Page FISA applications, and the FBI told the FISC that Steele had been “approached by an identified U.S. person [Glenn Simpson of Fusion GPS] who indicated to [Steele] that a U.S.-based law firm [Perkins Coie] had hired the identified U.S. person to conduct research regarding Candidate #1’s [Trump’s] ties to Russia.” The FBI also told the FISC that it “speculates that the identified U.S. person was likely looking for information that could be used to discredit Candidate #1’s campaign” adding that “[n]otwithstanding Source #1’s reason for conducting the research into Candidate #1’s ties to Russia, based on Source #1’s previous reporting history with the FBI, whereby Source #1 provided reliable information to the FBI, the FBI believes Source #1’s reporting hereon to be credible.”
Of the 17 memoranda in the Steele dossier, Carter Page is mentioned in only eight, and one of those was drafted in December 2016—months after the Page surveillance was first approved by the FISC. Summarized here are the Steele Dossier’s references to Carter Page in the six dossier memoranda prepared prior to the initial October 2016 FISA application.
Page was assuredly in Moscow in July 2016, and the trip had been approved by the Trump campaign.[13] While he denied meeting with Sechin, in his testimony before the House Intelligence Committee,[14] Page admitted meeting with one of Sechin’s subordinates, Andrey Baranov, the head of investor relations at Rosneft, the huge Russian energy conglomerate over which Sechin reigns. Page also denied meeting with Divyekin, but, in that same November 2017 testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, admitted he had met with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. In a July 2016 email to Trump campaign staffers, Page described that meeting with Dvorkovich as a “private conversation” and, in another July 2016 email to Trump campaign officials, also commented on the “incredible insights and outreach received from a few Russian legislators and senior members of the Presidential administration here.”
As is well known, Manafort was, at one time, manager of the Trump campaign, and Page was a “foreign policy advisor” to the campaign. Whether or not Manafort specifically used Page as an “intermediary,” Page did meet with Russian officials and discuss matters of interest to the Trump campaign.
Stein, Page, and Flynn all traveled to Moscow within a period of several months extending from late-2015 into 2016. Whether the Kremlin financed all, or any, of those trips has not been established.[15]
The WikiLeaks release of the hacked DNC emails is well-documented. Whether Page had any role in the strategy behind the WikiLeaks action has not been publicly confirmed.
As noted earlier, Page denies meeting with Sechin, but, during his testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, admitted meeting with a Sechin subordinate, Andrey Baranov.
Page’s testimony before the House Intelligence Committee confirmed meetings with Andrey Baranov and Arkady Dvorkovich, and, as noted in the discussion of Steele report 2016/094, his contemporaneous emails to the Trump campaign in July 2016 alluded to “incredible insights and outreach received from a few Russian legislators and senior members of the Presidential administration [in Moscow].”
Admittedly, there is much more in the Steele dossier than what is discussed here about Carter Page—and, concededly, some of it is quite salacious and all of the prurient content is unverified—at least publicly unverified since what is beneath the redacted parts of the Page FISA applications remains unknown. But, examining what the Dossier says about the activities of Carter Page reveals truthful details about a July 2016 trip to Moscow where Page did, in fact, meet with senior Russian officials purportedly on the very topics about which Page spoke of in his public comments made in Moscow. Page can deny meeting the individuals specifically identified in the Dossier, but he has admitted to meetings with other Russian officials while in Moscow in July 2016 and has documented those meetings in communications sent to members of the Trump campaign.
Frequently overlooked, or ignored, in the discussion of the Carter Page FISA applications, is what the FBI knew about Carter Page aside from the Steele Dossier. Again, considerably more could be, and probably is, lurking beneath the multitude of redactions, but, by the time of the initial Carter Page FISA application in October 2016, the FBI knew: (1) that Page lived in Russia for 3 years (from 2004-2007) where he served as an adviser on “key transactions” involving PAO Gazprom and RAO UES; (2) that Page had been recruited by Russian intelligence agents in 2013 who commented on his willingness to “take on everything” and his “enthusiasm” in assisting the Russians while noting his eagerness to earn “lots of money” from his Russian contacts; (3) that, in August 2013, Page had identified himself as “an informal advisor to the staff of the Kremlin;” (4) that shortly after joining the Trump campaign as an advisor, Page had been identified in the national press as an “out-and-out Putinite” with “a direct financial interest in ending American sanctions against [the Kremlin’s state-run gas company] Gazprom;” (5) that Page traveled to Moscow in July 2016, while serving as a member of the Trump campaign, and delivered a speech harshly critical of U.S. “Russian policy” and the Obama administration’s position on Russian activities in the Ukraine; and (6) that while in Moscow for his speech, Page met with Russian officials and, shortly thereafter, the Trump campaign successfully lobbied against any Republican support for providing lethal aid to the Ukrainians. Further, two emails written by Page while in Moscow in July 2016, and sent to other Trump campaign officials, recount that Page had a “private conversation” with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich and commented on the “incredible insights and outreach received from a few Russian legislators and senior members of the Presidential administration here.” All of this was known to the FBI, without any mention of anything contained in the Steele Dossier—the origins of which the FBI disclosed to the FISC in a footnote that extends for over a page in each FISA application.[16]
As acknowledged earlier, vast amounts of the hundreds of pages comprising the Carter Page FISA applications remain redacted and publicly unavailable. If Barr has seen more of those applications than is available to the public, or otherwise has insights into their content generally unknown to the public, he gave no such indication in his comments. If he was referring to other information known to him that supports the conclusion that there were investigative or surveillance “improprieties,” he did not elaborate. To the contrary, his subsequent comments to the Senate subcommittee allowed that he was “not saying that that improper surveillance occurred” but that “I want to make sure there was no unauthorized surveillance.”[17]
Given what is known about the Carter Page applications, it is difficult to imagine language less considerate of the morale of the FBI or more likely to play into the ongoing conspiracy theories surrounding the 2016 election generated by both the president himself and his Fox News enthusiasts. Part of the Attorney General’s portfolio is to promote public confidence in the rule of law and the efficacy of the nation’s law enforcement institutions. Barr’s performance achieved the exact opposite. If Barr had internally pursued inquiries designed to satisfy himself as to doubts or concerns that he harbored about any feature of the FBI investigation, he was both entitled and, as Attorney General, arguably duty-bound, to do so. However, his accusatory public comments, replete with the loaded use of the descriptive term “spying” which conjures all manner of negative connotations, was an exercise in both poor judgment and questionable leadership. Regardless of his belated attempts to walk back some, and qualify other, of his comments, he has created a mess entirely of his own making, and assured that his handling of the Mueller Report will be scrutinized by many with ever greater suspicion.
The Attorney General’s comments seem to assure that any determination that there were improprieties in this FBI counterintelligence investigation will be broadly disseminated; one can only trust that, should his promised “inquiry” conclude that the “spying” was, in Barr’s words, “adequately predicated,” then that determination will be equally well-publicized. The Attorney General now owes the Intelligence Community no less.
[1] Nicholas Fandos and Adam Goldman, “Barr Asserts Intelligence Agencies Spied on the Trump Campaign,” New York Times, April 10, 2019.
[2] Michael Balsamo, “Trump: U.S. illegally spied on campaign,” Philadelphia Inquirer, April 12, 2019.
[3] I have recounted a good deal of this chronology in earlier articles published at fpri.org. See, e.g., The Carter Page FISA Applications: Much Risk to FISA, Little New Insight, But a Rebuff to the Nunes Narrative, FPRI E-Notes, July 23, 2018; Fact and Denial: Trump’s Inexplicable Refutation of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Conclusion of Russian Election Interference, FPRI E-Notes, July 18, 2018.
[4] Ken Dilanian, Julia Ainsley and Carol Lee, “FBI Warned Trump in 2016 Russians Would Try to Infiltrate His Campaign,” NBCNews, December 18, 2017, https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=2ahUKEwjAubO6vMvhAhXGVN8KHYgwBWkQFjAAegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nbcnews.com%2Fnews%2Fus-news%2Ffbi-warned-trump-2016-russians-would-try-infiltrate-his-campaign-n830596&usg=AOvVaw3h9qg8n3LPlW929-ci3Taz.
[5] Id.
[6] Manu Raju, “GOP at a loss over Trump’s past praise for WikiLeaks,” CNNPolitics, April 12, 2019, https://www.google.com/urla=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=15&ved=2ahUKEwi1kbiuvsvhAhUCmuAKHYi4BpUQFjAOegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2019%2F04%2F11%2Fpolitics%2Frepublican-reaction-trump-wikileaks%2Findex.html&usg=AOvVaw161-W8Ph1Gl2PTg7bex5zz.
[7] Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent U.S. Elections (UNCLAS) (the “ICA”), January 6, 2017 at 1. Available at https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf.
[8] I discuss the Intelligence Community Assessment and other reporting on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election in greater detail in Fact and Denial: Trump’s Inexplicable Refutation of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Conclusion of Russian Election Interference, FPRI E-Notes, July 18, 2018. https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/07/fact-and-denial-trumps-inexplicable-refutation-of-the-u-s-intelligence-communitys-conclusion-of-russian-election-interference/
[9] ICA at ii. The ICA reports that “[w]e have high confidence in these judgments.” Id.
[10] Certainly, The New York Times drew that immediate conclusion, commenting that: “Republicans in Congress have questioned the legality of that warrant because it used unverified Democrat-funded opposition research compiled into a dossier by Christopher Steele.” Nicholas Fandos and Adam Goldman, “Barr Asserts Intelligence Agencies Spied on the Trump Campaign,” New York Times, April 10, 2019.
[11] See, e.g., Culper Rule of Law Series: Judge John Bates (available on Lawfare Podcasts) https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-culper-partners-rule-law-series-judge-john-bates. Judge Bates, a former chief judge of the FISC speaking of the Carter Page FISA applications, states, inter alia, “I will note and note with some force that I have seen nothing that indicates that the court was misled, that the Department of Justice or the intelligence community made misrepresentations to the court. . . . And not only have I seen nothing that would indicate that, I have heard nothing that persuasively makes that case.”
These views largely reflect those that I have voiced in earlier articles on the Page FISA applications. See OutFoxed: The Vulpine Network Keeps Swinging and Missing at the Carter Page FISA Applications, FPRI E-Notes, August 16, 2019, https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/08/outfoxed-the-vulpine-network-keeps-swinging-and-missing-at-the-carter-page-fisa-applications/.
The Carter Page FISA Applications: Much Risk to FISA, Little New Insight, But a Rebuff to the Nunes Narrative, FPRI E-Notes, July 23, 2018, https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/07/the-carter-page-fisa-applications-much-risk-to-fisa-little-new-insight-but-a-rebuff-to-the-nunes-narrative/.
[12] Most of this discussion of the Steele Dossier is drawn from my earlier analysis of that Dossier, and the Carter Page FiSA applications, in OutFoxed: The Vulpine Network Keeps Swinging and Missing at the Carter Page FISA Applications, FPRI E-Notes, August 16, 2018. Nothing that has occurred or been revealed since I wrote OutFoxed in August 2018 suggests that any part of this analysis of the Dossier’s reporting on Carter Page is erroneous. Indeed, a December 2018 review of the Steele Dossier contrasting its content to what had been revealed in indictments arising from the Mueller investigation produced the conclusion that: “As a raw intelligence document, the Steele dossier, we believe, holds up well so far.” Sarah Grant and Chuck Rosenberg, “The Steele Dossier: A Retrospective,” Lawfare, December 14, 2018.
[13] Artin Afkhami, “A Timeline of Carter Page’s Contacts with Russia,” Slate, November 7, 2017.
[14] Testimony of Carter Page, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, November 2, 2017.
[15] Stein and Flynn sat at Putin’s table in Moscow in December 2015 at the dinner celebrating the 10th anniversary for Russian television station “RT.” “RT,” as it turns out, was identified in the ICA as a principal conduit of Russian disinformation disseminated as part of Russia’s interference efforts with the 2016 election.
[16] Notably, Frank Figliuzzi, a former FBI counterintelligence chief who is now an NBC News contributor, has commented that, considering what the FBI knew about Page’s activities, it would have been “malpractice” for the Bureau not to investigate.
[17] Nicholas Fandos and Adam Goldman, “Barr Asserts Intelligence Agencies Spied on the Trump Campaign,” New York Times, April 10, 2019.