Download In the Crossfire: The Impact of West-Russia Tensions on Post-Soviet States

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Executive Summary

How have countries in the post-Soviet space responded to the intensified clash between the Russian Federation and the West since 2014? Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its war in eastern Ukraine forced post-Soviet states to re-evaluate their foreign policy orientations and economic relationship with Russia. Due to their geopolitical vulnerability, members of the Eastern Partnership and the Eurasian Economic Union took a careful stance on the Ukraine crisis, siding fully neither with Western sanctions nor with Russia’s counter-sanctions. Placed between Russia and the West, these states rewired their political allegiances and reinforced their long-standing multi-vector policy. To mitigate the destabilizing economic effects, post-Soviet states opted for a strategy of diversification, pivoting to third countries and altering previously Russia-centric trade structures, labor migration, and remittance flows. The new geopolitical reality has shown the limitations of the European Union’s and Russia’s leverage over the region, while a gradual rise of third powers has given post-Soviet states more ability to balance West and East.