Foreign Policy Research Institute A Nation Must Think Before it Acts 2023 Year In Review

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2023 Year In Review

2023 Year In Review

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President’s Letter

The Foreign Policy Research Institute had an exceptional year in 2023. Much of the credit for our accomplishments goes to our incredible staff, generous and loyal supporters, along with the thousands of people around the world that engage every day with the work that we do. 

This year we published extensively on Russia’s military capabilities, the Russo-Ukrainian War, strategic competition with China, European security, and the ongoing challenges in the Middle East and Africa. 

Over the last year we also launched new initiatives, such as the Center for the Study of Intelligence and Nontraditional Warfare, and expanded others, such as the International Crisis Management certificate course for Ukrainian students, in partnership with The George Washington University.

We have broadened our audience and engagement through new formats, podcasts, event series, and newsletters. We have also hosted major international conferences on Black Sea security in Tbilisi, Georgia, Brussels, and Washington, D.C. We were delighted to present the 17th Benjamin Franklin Award for Public Service to CEO and Chairman of General Dynamics Phebe N. Novakovic at our annual celebration, which featured a fireside chat with former National Security Advisor General (ret.) H.R. McMaster.

The world is a complicated place and requires nonpartisan analysis to help policymakers and people understand. FPRI remains committed to providing independent, nonpartisan analysis that goes beyond the headlines and makes sense of a world in crisis.

Research – Year in Review

Ukrainian servicemen of the 80th Air Assault Brigade stand in front of a Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicle, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, near Bahmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, February 16, 2023. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

Analyzing Russia’s War in Ukraine

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine continued to be a cornerstone of FPRI’s research focus in 2023. Russia has adapted its strategy over the course of the war but has yet to find a path to military victory. FPRI examined the conflict in several different ways: Russian military strategy, Ukrainian military performance, Russia’s domestic environment, and considerations for transatlantic security. 

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Russia’s Military 

Senior Fellows Rob Lee, Pavel Luzin, Philip Wasielewski, and Stephen Blank produced a series of reports and webinars for the Russia Strategic Initiative at US European Command examining Russian military dysfunction, nuclear policy, critical vulnerabilities, and industry forecast.

In another report, Pavel Luzin examined the past, present, and future of the Russian military unmanned aerial vehicle industry, arguing that turbulence in the sector and in the whole aerospace industry will persist—if not increase—in the coming years. Russia’s capabilities in reconnaissance and targeting as well as in high-precision weapons will stagnate, if not decrease, in the foreseeable future. Luzin also broke down the findings of his report on FPRI’s Report in Short podcast. 

The Wagner Group’s Expanding Global Footprint 

FPRI was a leading voice on the role of private military companies in advancing Russian national security interests, both in Ukraine and elsewhere. In one of FPRI’s most read reports of 2023, The Wagner Group’s Expanding Global Footprint, Raphael Parens, Colin Clarke, Christopher Faulkner, and Kendal Wolf offered recommendations on a multi-sector approach to fighting the group. The report was widely cited in national and international media. 

Following Wagner’s failed mutiny and subsequent death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, FPRI fellows continued to provide context on Wagner’s evolving role in Ukraine and throughout Africa. 

Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group pull out of the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to base, in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

Understanding Ukraine’s Military Performance

Since Russia began its full scale invasion of Ukraine, FPRI has continued to monitor the conflict and analyze its local, regional, and global impact. As part of this effort FPRI supported several major field research projects in the region in 2023. 

After field research in Georgia, Moldova, Poland, Lithuania, and Hungary, Senior Fellow Philip Wasielewski examined the effects of Russia’s political warfare operations beyond Ukraine. In his report, The Frontline States: Conversations and Observations from Russia’s Other War in Europe, Wasielewski argued that US efforts against Russia’s political warfare could be more effective and citizens in frontline states facing Russian subversion have constructive criticisms to improve them. 

In a second report, Fighting to Win: Ukraine, Russia, and the War for Survival, based on field research in Ukraine, Wasielewski offered a view from the ground, assessed Ukrainian and Russian war aims and strategies, and offered recommendations for US foreign policy makers. He argued that the United States needs to move past strategic ambiguity, and get specific on how long America intends to support Ukraine against Russia. Eurasia Head of Research Robert Hamilton interviewed the author at a report launch event in September. 

FPRI published a report by Thomas Lafitte and Ihor Moshenets which examined the consequences of the war on Ukraine’s energy landscape, its international ramifications, and showed how synchronizing Ukrainian and European power grids would firmly anchor Ukraine into the European Union. 

FPRI’s work on this topic was bolstered by several episodes of the Bear Market Brief and Chain Reaction podcasts: 

People walk past an electronic screen on the facade of a building showing an image of Russian President Vladimir Putin and a quote from his annual end-of-year press conference and the Direct Line question and answer session, in Moscow, Russia December 14, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Identifying Russian Weak Points and US Strategies to Exploit Them 

The US strategy to halt Russian expansionism will inevitably focus on Ukraine for the foreseeable future. However, FPRI is actively exploring Russia’s weak points, both inside Russia and other regions, providing policymakers with an understanding of these vulnerabilities and their implications for the United States. 

Inside Russia

FPRI continued its flagship work on Russia’s society, political economy, regional politics, and public opinion through the weekly Bear Market Brief newsletter and podcast, as well as a variety of reports, analysis, and events. 

Andras Tóth-Czifra’s report War as an Accelerator examined how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated pre-existing issues in its domestic governance and political economy. 

In another report, Tóth-Czifra examined takeaways from Russia’s regional and municipal elections, arguing that domestic political actors—from political and business elites to voters—seem to have recognized, if not fully accepted, the reality of a long and costly war. Finally, Tóth-Czifra’s report Controlling the Narrative provided a roadmap to the issues, the conflicts, and the new structural limitations of public policies in Russia in the months leading up to the 2024 presidential election.

FPRI’s work on Russia’s domestic environment was further supplemented by analysis by Olga Khvostunova on understanding Putin’s ideology and Crimea’s enduring symbolism in crafting the Kremlin’s narrative of power and control. The Bear Market Brief podcast also featured a variety of conversations on related topics such as: 

Central Asia and the South Caucasus

FPRI deepened this research on Central Asia and the South Caucasus in 2023 by publishing a series of reports and short articles by both well-known and emerging voices on the region like Bruce Pannier, Edward Lemon, Niva Yau, Maximilian Hess, and others. Highlights include: 

 

President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia, March 2023. (kremlin.ru)

The Russia-China Relationship

Understanding the Russia-China relationship is another high value area for US strategic interests. Eurasia Program Head of Research Robert Hamilton’s forthcoming book (Springer, 2024) on this subject examines how Russia and China interact on the ground, in regions where both have important interests at stake: Africa, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and East Asia. This novel approach promises a more nuanced understanding of a relationship that is dynamic, complex, and contingent. FPRI published an excerpt of the book The Dragon and the Bear in Africa: Stress-Testing Chinese-Russian Relations in November 2023. 

Assessing the Implications of Sanctions on Russian Power

This year FPRI published Seoul Searching: Lessons from South Korea’s Experience with Sanctions Against Russia, a case study report of South Korea’s experience in the economic war between Russia and West since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the report, Maximilian Hess and Taehwa Hong examine South Korea’s sanctions against Russia, how South Korean companies have managed the tricky market situation, and the current state of bilateral relations. The authors shared their findings in a virtual event in December.

FPRI also hosted Maximilian Hess on the Bear Market Brief podcast and at an event in Philadelphia to discuss similar themes featured in his book Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict Between Russia and the West (Hurst, 2023). A frequent commentator on international political economy, Hess’ analysis was featured on CNBC, Al Jazeera, Financial Times, and the Washington Post. 

 

A group of Lithuanian infantry advance along a track during Exercise Engineer Thunder 23. (NATO)

European and Transatlantic Security 

In March 2023 FPRI convened a Track 2 dialogue in Brussels with European and American representatives to examine the future role of nuclear weapons in Russian doctrine and strategy. The goal of this event was to provide deeper understanding for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and the Department of Defense. During the dialogue, participants looked to the near future in a potential context where Russian forces may retain a foothold in Ukraine and NATO may continue to militarily support the government in Kyiv. Among other topics, panelists discussed the future of security in Europe, the role of nuclear weapons in guaranteeing Allied safety, and potential escalation pathways between Russia and NATO. The objective was to understand how countries view the same problem set so that FPRI can help identify areas of convergence and disagreement, which can lead to actionable recommendations about how to improve deterrence in Europe.

Mitchell Orenstein explored a different angle to European security in his report Putin the Green? The Unintended Consequence of Russia’s Energy War on Europe arguing that Vladimir Putin has accelerated Europe’s transition to green energy, decimating a key market for Russian exporters. As a result, Europe is well-positioned to win the energy war with Russia. 

FPRI continued The Continent podcast, which explores how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe’s politics and security. Host Aaron Schwartzbaum “visited” a country on each episode, learning about key dynamics and trends from local experts. Episodes this year included:

FPRI also welcomed Lieutenant Colonel Walter Landgraf as the first US Army Fellow in the Eurasia Program. His FPRI analysis focused on transatlantic relations as well as Euro-Atlantic and European integration.

Baltic Initiative 

FPRI’s Baltic Initiative, founded in 2016 to serve as a hub for analysis on defense and geopolitical issues of the Baltic Sea region, continued to publish monthly Baltic Bulletins from analysts in the region. Highlights include: 

FPRI continued to publish the monthly Baltic Roundup newsletter, by Indra Ekmanis, which features an overview of major, political, and economic events in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. 

FPRI also extended its partnership with the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies on the Baltic Ways podcast, which features monthly conversations on the past, present, and future of the Baltic States. 2023 podcast highlights include: 

 

US and Bulgarian Special Operation Forces (SOF) approach a vessel aboard a rigid hull inflatable boat while conducting Visit, Board, Search and Seizure training during Exercise Trojan Footprint 2022 in Varna, Bulgaria, May 10, 2022.  (US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class William Carlisle)

Redoubling Our Focus on the Black Sea 

The Black Sea region looms increasingly large as the locus of great power, military, political, and economic competition. Russia has chosen the region as a focal point of its challenge to the Western security order, as its 2008 invasion of Georgia and its 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine made clear. Geopolitically, the region is where the West, Russia, and the wider Middle East come into contact. 

To further explore these issues, FPRI organized a three-day conference, Changing Tides in the Black Sea Region, in Tbilisi, Georgia. It was FPRI’s first major international conference since the end of the pandemic, bringing together 27 experts from twelve different countries. The conference was co-hosted by one of the most prominent universities in Georgia, Ilia State University. The goal of this conference was to advance understanding among regional and Western scholars and policymakers on the challenges and opportunities in the Black Sea Region.

FPRI’s research of the Black Sea region continued with coverage of Turkey, whose international importance has only grown in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Aaron Stein and Nicholas Danforth’s monograph, Turkey’s New Foreign Policy: Ankara’s Ambitions, Regional Responses, and Implications for the United States, explored the historic and contemporary dynamics behind Turkey’s changing foreign policy. FPRI also hosted the authors for a virtual discussion and in-person launch event in Philadelphia. 

In the wake of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan re-election in March, FPRI featured a variety of analysis tackling different aspects and outcomes of the election—from internal politics to foreign policy, from Erdoğan’s legacy to the shape of things to come. 

Strategic Competition with China 

FPRI continued to expand its research on geoeconomics, US-China economic and technology competition, and China’s internal politics and overseas influence activity. A special issue of Orbis, FPRI’s Journal of World Affairs, unpacked the intricate dynamics of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and US-China competition.

FPRI co-hosted two panel discussions on the BRI with the Wilson Center, examining its impact on partner states through China’s foreign aid policies and modes of law and governance. 

In one of the most read pieces of the year, Asia Program Research Associate Thai-Binh Elston examined China’s digital yuan, arguing that the United States is at risk of losing economic leverage and international financial power if Beijing continues to dictate the norms and regulations of digital currencies. 

Asia Program Director Michael Beckley’s expert commentary on US-China relations appeared in various outlets such as Foreign Affairs, Lawfare, and The New York Times.

Tensions in the South China Sea

The risk of war over Taiwan is higher today than at any time in the past half-century. While the United States has tried to deter Chinese aggression by declaring its support for Taiwan, it is no longer clear that the US military could immediately respond to a Chinese assault on the island. This makes deterrence and defense cooperation among the US, Japan, and Taiwan extremely important. 

To explore this issue, FPRI convened a US-Japan-Taiwan Track 2 dialogue in Washington D.C. in November 2023 to discuss deterrence and defense cooperation. Participants included retired military leaders, former government officials, and non-government subject-matter experts from the United States, Japan, and Taiwan. The resulting report outlined the current environment, key findings, and offered recommendations for the United States and its collaboration with partner countries. 

Analysis of the US-Japan-Taiwan relationship was augmented by analysis by several FPRI fellows: 

Demonstrators hold photographs of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian flags during a sit-in to protest against the visit of the French President Emmanuel Macron and France’s perceived support for neighbouring Rwanda, which Congo accuses of supporting M23 rebels in the east, in front of the French embassy in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, March 1, 2023. REUTERS/Justin Makangara

Instability in the Sahel 

The Sahel’s vulnerability to climate change and extremist movements makes it a chokepoint, affecting the entire continent’s security. The region became increasingly volatile in 2023, with six coups in the past two years. The US position in the Sahel is weakening, which will negatively impact its ability to deal with international extremist movements and cedes the ground to malign Russian influence. FPRI’s Africa fellows examined this changing dynamic through a variety of analysis and virtual briefings including:

An Israeli soldier looks through binoculars, as smoke rises above Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Southern Israel, December 18, 2023. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

Realignment in the Middle East 

In the Middle East, reality can change in the blink of an eye. After the October 7 Hamas attack on civilian and military targets in southern Israel, the region entered a dangerous new normal. FPRI’s Middle East fellows provided expert commentary on the regional implications of the expanding conflict. FPRI also hosted a series of virtual briefings including on the realignment of the region with Lior Sternfeld and Israel’s military campaign in Gaza with Joshua Krasna. 

A special issue of Orbis, in partnership with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Israel Office and the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, focused on the new evolving security architecture in the Middle East. 

FPRI’s Overheard podcast also examined the Hamas attack from the angle of intelligence collection and intelligence analysis.

Intelligence and Irregular Warfare 

In 2023 FPRI launched the Center for the Study of Intelligence and Nontraditional Warfare headed by Philip Wasielewski, a former Paramilitary Case Officer who had a 31 year career in the Directorate of Operations of the Central Intelligence Agency. This new initiative will examine the changing nature of nontraditional warfare through a contemporary and historical lens. 

This year the Center launched the Overheard podcast, which explores the national security implications of intelligence activities, irregular warfare, and political warfare.

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