Publications

Most analysts have labeled Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted rebellion and the Wagner Group mutiny a failure. And in many ways, that’s true. Indeed, Prigozhin and the contingent of Wagner fighters that eschewed signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence...

Sending Kentucky to Korea  On July 18, 2023, the USS Kentucky, an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, docked in Busan, South Korea. The USS Kentucky is one of 14 Ohio-class submarines tasked with conducting nuclear deterrence patrols and carries up...

It is incredibly difficult to predict what will happen in the 2024 South Africa National Elections. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) certainly appears to be struggling to maintain the support of constituents due to poor performance, internal infighting,...

Twice this week, drones attacked a building housing government ministries in Moscow. The Kremlin immediately blamed Ukraine. Ukrainian officials remained coy, not directly claiming responsibility for the strikes but noting that Moscow “is rapidly getting used to a full-fledged...

Not since the Cuban missile crisis have island nations played such critical pieces on the geopolitical chessboard. Recent intelligence leaks, for example, reveal that China is planning to construct a signals intelligence facility in Cuba in order to monitor...

Violence broke out in Khartoum in the early morning hours of April 15. Over 100 days later, brutal fighting continues. Sudan’s bustling capital was awakened by violent clashes throughout the city targeting the government’s command and control centers. During...

  Introduction The recent mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary force, generated international concern about the control of Russian nuclear weapons and Russia’s future nuclear policy. Therefore we must ask, will Russia change its nuclear policy...

Capitalists of the world unite! You have everything to lose, especially your supply chains.  Just about a month ago, on June 18, Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes was quoted in the Financial Times as saying “We can de-risk, but we...

In the 2010s, the global landscape changed. The Arab Spring, the Russian occupation of Crimea, and China’s national security law in Hong Kong were indicative of a profound change in the global system. The era of the unipolar moment,...

  The following is an edited transcript of a live recording of FPRI’s Chain Reaction podcast from the Changing Tides in the Black Sea conference, June 29, 2023. Listen to the recording here.  Recordings of all six panel discussions...