The following is an edited transcript of a live recording of FPRI’s Chain Reaction podcast from the Changing Tides in the Black Sea conference, June 29, 2023. Listen to the recording here.  Recordings of all six panel discussions...

Key Takeaways Some of the critical vulnerabilities to Russia’s military operations and systems—revealed during the war in Ukraine—are due to its military culture and poor strategic choices at the beginning of the war including overly ambitious strategic aims. Deficiencies...

Introduction More than one year after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine it has become clear that Russia’s security elite and President Vladimir Putin seriously underestimated both the resilience and combat capabilities of Ukraine and the willingness of an international...

  After the start of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the arms expenditures and military budget of Russia skyrocketed and continue to grow for the foreseeable future. However, the military industry is under threat Despite the...

Wagner Roadmap: Ten Recommendations to Fight the Group 1. The sanctions discussion needs to be expanded, as such designations should aim to shame Wagner’s state partners.  2. Sanctions lists should expand to include actors in third-party countries, such as...

  Executive Summary An unwillingness to decentralize decision making authority and a failure to communicate accurate information are the most consequential weaknesses at the state level that have contributed to the Russian military’s subpar performance to date in the...

  After Russia’s February 24, 2022, re-invasion of Ukraine, all eyes turned to the brutal spectacle of Europe’s largest war since 1945. Yet, Russia’s ill-fated attempt to assert its sphere of influence in Europe has not been confined to...

  For the past century, Turkey’s foreign policy has been driven by the need to preserve the achievements of the Lausanne Treaty in the face of often serious threats from major powers. As a result, Turkey was a predominantly...

  Executive Summary When the People’s Republic of China’s president and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he publicly acknowledged that the Party faced an existential crisis from pervasive corruption at all levels of...

  Will Russia survive until 2084? Readers may recognize the query as an allusion to Andrei Amalrik’s historic 1969 essay, “Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?,” which itself was an allusion to Orwell’s famed novel. As with Amalrik’s...